Population Research

The Employment Effect of Public Data Openness

Wang Chunrui, Li Enji, Peng Lanling, Liu Jiaqiang

2024, 48(6): 3-17.

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Public data, as an essential resource for government services, significantly contributes to promoting high-quality and full employment. This study uses panel data from cities at prefecture level and above to explore the impact of public data openness on urban employment. Based on the characteristics of public data, this paper explains the impact mechanism of public data openness on urban employment scale and structure from three aspects: information flow integration, technological progress promotion, and business environment optimization. The study reveals that public data openness increases employment. The impact is heterogeneous, being more pronounced in cities with a Chief Data Officer and more advanced digital infrastructure. Men, highly skilled workers, and those in secondary and tertiary sectors benefit more from this openness. Due to the coexistence of the “Technology Diffusion Effect” and the “Siphon Effect,” the impact of neighboring provinces is not statistically significant. The findings suggest that we should further strengthen the opening and development of public data, empower the construction of public employment service system with data, create new scenarios of diversified employment services, and promote high-quality and adequate employment.

Trends in Marriage Postponement in China: An Analysis Using Multiple Methods

Chen Wei, Ouyang Baihui

2024, 48(6): 18-32.

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Data from 2020 Population Census show an acceleration in the trend of delaying first marriages in China since 2010. The mean age at first marriage for women rose from 23.28 years in 2000 to 24.00 years in 2010 and to 27.95 years in 2020. Given that the population-weighted method is influenced by age structure, alternative methods, including rate-weighted method, the singulate mean age at marriage and net nuptiality table, are used to calculate and compare the mean age at first marriage for Chinese women. All indicators reflect the similar trend of delaying first marriage among Chinese women, with a noticeable acceleration in recent years. However, when age structure effects are removed, the increase in the mean age at first marriage for Chinese women shows a more moderate upward trend, with a delay of 2.92 to 3.78 years between 2000 and 2020, which is less than the result calculated by the population-weighted method. Across the different indicators, an initial widening and then narrowing trend in the urban-rural gap in first marriage delay is observed. After controlling for age structure, the extent of delay in first marriage is lower for all urban, town and rural women, with the difference being smaller in urban and larger in towns and rural areas.

Who Give Birth to Three Children? Pattern and Determinants of Living Conditions of Three-Child Families

Shi Zhilei, Wang Zhang, Wang Yun

2024, 48(6): 33-52.

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Based on the three-child family database constructed by the forth “Hubei 100 Counties Fertility Survey(2023)”, this paper describes the characteristics of three-child families, and focuses on analyzing the living conditions of three-child families. The results show that after implementing the Three-child policy, the proportion of third-child fertility is on the rise, the proportion of three-child families with urban hukou and higher education has increased significantly; Boy preference is the main driving force for having a third child; Male breadwinner mode has become a mainstream choice for the three-child families; Parenting, education expenditure pressure and lack of carer are the main difficulties faced by the three-child families. The analysis results of influencing factors on the living conditions of the three-child families show that socioeconomic status is the main factor affecting the survival status of the three-child families. The lower the socioeconomic status, the lower the quality of life and satisfaction of the three-child families. If families or society can provide parenting and education support for parents with three children, their living conditions can be effectively improved.

Population Agglomeration in Six World-Class City Clusters: An Evolutionary Perspective

Yin Deting, Shi Yi, Zhao Guoli, Liao Wenwen

2024, 48(6): 53-68.

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Recognizing the core commonalities and inherent laws of population development of world-class city clusters is a necessary path to understanding the incubation mechanism of urban agglomerations. Based on the collection of long-term historical population data and regional spatial planning data, we employ Lorentz curve, spatial Gini coefficient and other methods, taking the overall urban agglomeration and central city population growth as observation indicators, to compare the population of six world-class city clusters, and changes in scale, agglomeration characteristics and evolutionary process. The population of the six world-class city clusters has shown a common “life-cycle” development process, which is manifested in the continuous strengthening of population resource advantages, the hierarchical differentiation of population spatial structure, the prominent siphoning role of the central city, and the gradual narrowing of the gap between the total population of the primary city and the central city. In the process of expansion and contraction of different types of cities, urban agglomerations generally experience a transformation from single-core polarization in the first city to multi-point aggregation in the central city, the continuous strengthening of the urban agglomeration circle pattern, and the dual stability of the urban agglomeration order pattern. “Symbiotic” rather than “zero-sum game” inter-city agglomeration of population has become the main driving factor for the population development of world-class city clusters.

Parental Burnout under Cultural Field Tensions: A Comparative Analysis of 14 Post-Transition Countries

Wu Fan, Liu Mengxin, Chen Ling

2024, 48(6): 69-83.

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In the era of low fertility, negative parenting experiences significantly reduce fertility intentions. Parental burnout, a negative emotional state associated with fulfilling parental responsibilities, has garnered widespread attention in academic research. Prior research predominantly concentrated on the micro-level analysis or a narrow cultural standpoint, neglecting an in-depth exploration of the complex social mechanisms underlying parental burnout. This study proposes the “Cultural Field Tension Hypothesis” and employs a hierarchical linear model to explore the effects of cultural field tension on parental burnout by using data from 14 post-fertility transition countries. The results show that individualistic cultural tendencies, female labour force participation, childcare service coverage, and the degree of gender inequality are all strongly associated with the severity of parental burnout. From the perspective of parental burnout, this study highlights the need to reassess current fertility support policies. Gender-equal policies should be promoted to foster the synergistic progress of the family and society in achieving gender equality and to enhance the positive experience of individuals in the childbearing process.

Migration Experiences and Reproductive Behaviors: An Analysis Based on Fertility Diffusion Theory

Fan Xinguang, Sheng He

2024, 48(6): 84-99.

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China's fertility transition process is characterized by a regionally progressive pattern. The process of fertility transition exhibits both temporal and spatial diffusion phenomena, with migrant flows serving as a crucial channel for fertility diffusion. Using data from the Life History Survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2014 and provincial fertility data, this paper examines the relationship between fertility environment changes resulting from inter-provincial migration and women's number of children ever born and reproductive behaviors. The analysis reveals that migration experiences from high-fertility regions to low-fertility regions reduce the lifetime number of children. Migration experiences in relatively low-fertility regions significantly decrease the probability of giving birth. This indicates that changes in the fertility environment serve as a critical pathway through which migration experiences shape reproductive behaviors. In the context of large-scale population migration from rural to urban areas and from central and western to eastern regions, this study provides a micro-level explanation for the diffusion phenomena observed in China's fertility level changes.

Can Physical Exercises Reduce Health Inequality? Evidence from the “Famine Generation”

Wang Fubaihui, He Xiaotong, Yang Fan

2024, 48(6): 100-114.

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Using data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS), this study demonstrates that physical exercises could help narrow subjective and objective health disparities from famine experiences among middle-aged and older adults. The results reveal significant health differences among middle-aged and older adults with varying degrees of famine experience. Physical exercises significantly improve the health status of those who experienced the longest periods of famine. Compared to their counterparts who did not experience famine, middle-aged and older adults with famine experiences show more improvements in subjective and objective health conditions due to physical exercises. Furthermore, as participation in physical exercises increase, the health disparities of middle-aged and older adults with different degrees of famine experience tend to diminish. This physical exercises intervention effectively reduce health disparities caused by famine experiences among middle-aged and older populations. This study underscores the health promotion effects of physical exercises, advocates for the establishment of a life-course-oriented physical activity service model, the implementation of a comprehensive support strategy for “proactive health,” and the exploration into a framework for the coordinated development of “exercise, medicine, and nutrition.”

The Impact of Population Decline on Enterprise Entry in Urban China: Evidence from Registration Data of Industrial and Commercial Enterprises

Tao Tao, Cong Zhenglong, Ni Chenxu, Zhang Bo

2024, 48(6): 115-129.

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Limited research on the influence of population decline on economic growth examines the large scale enterprise-level data. Based on the registration data of urban industrial and commercial enterprises and residents from 2009 to 2019, this study employs a fixed-effects model to examine the impact of population decline on enterprise entry in urban China and its mechanisms. The results reveal that, in urban China, population decline significantly restricts enterprise entry. On average, the population decline experienced by some cities led to an annual decrease of 2.5% in new enterprise entry nationwide from 2010 to 2019. On the supply side, the population decline reduces labor supply and inhibits technological progress, affecting labor-intensive and technology-intensive industries significantly. On the demand side, it curtails consumption demand, reduces investments, and hinders capital accumulation, impacting the entry of enterprises in hospitality, dining, sports, and entertainment industries. The effect is more pronounced in non-metropolitan and small to mid-sized cities.

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