Abstract: Consumption plays a foundational role in economic development, and enhancing resident consumption is one of the key pathways to promote stable growth in consumption. According to the Seventh National Population Census, the proportion of empty-nest elderly households in China reached 43.55%, corresponding to approximately 145 million empty-nest elderly individuals. It is estimated that by 2030, the number of urban and rural empty-nest elderly will rise to 200 million. As the population of empty-nest elderly continues to grow, their consumption will exert an increasingly significant influence on the development of the resident consumption market.

This paper defines empty-nest elderly as single-living elderly and elderly couples whose children do not live with them, and divides the consumption structure of the elderly into four categories: basic living consumption, medical consumption, developmental consumption, and enjoyment consumption. Using five waves of data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) covering 2011 to 2020, this study systematically analyzes the development trend of consumption structure and its influencing factors for empty-nest elderly in urban and rural areas in China. In order to distinguish individual consumption from household consumption, this study first employs the least squares method, following the analytical frameworks of Mankiw and Weil (1989) as well as Mi and Ren (2014), controlling for household size and structure, age composition of household members, and household income to estimate individual consumption expenditures for elderly couples living without children and the elderly co-residing with family members. Second, the Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort (HAPC) model is applied to analyze the changing trends in consumption structures among urban and rural empty-nest elderly. Finally, the Fractional Probit regression model is utilized to examine the determinants influencing the consumption structure of the empty-nest elderly.

The result reveals that the consumption structure of urban and rural empty-nest elderly shows significant age, period, and cohort trends. Young-old and oldest-old empty-nest elderly have higher basic living consumption and lower medical consumption, and middle-old elderly have lower basic living consumption and higher medical consumption. Over the long term, the basic living consumption of the empty-nest elderly has decreased, while developmental consumption and enjoyment consumption have increased. And the medical consumption of the elderly couples and urban single-living elderly has decreased, while the medical consumption of rural single-living elderly has increased. Empty-nest elderly from earlier birth cohorts have higher basic living consumption and lower medical consumption; urban empty-nest elderly couples from later birth cohorts have higher developmental consumption, while the cohort difference in developmental consumption among rural empty-nest elderly is minimal. The age effect of developmental and enjoyment consumption, and the cohort effect of enjoyment consumption among empty-nest elderly are not significant. The economic ability, health status, social security, cognitive ability, and internet ability of empty-nest elderly all have significant impacts on their consumption structure through the social participation path.

The study suggests that increasing the economic income, advocating emphasis on disease prevention and health management, expanding social participation, advancing age-friendly internet adaptation, and devoting to strength digital skills training for the elderly will help improve and upgrade the consumption structure of empty-nest elderly.

Keywords: Empty-nest Elderly, Elderly Living with Family, Consumption Structure, Difference between Urban and Rural Areas

摘要： 本文利用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2011~2020年5期数据，系统分析了城乡空巢老年人消费结构的变化趋势及影响因素。研究发现，城乡空巢老年人的消费结构呈现一定的年龄、时期和队列效应，低龄和高龄空巢老年人的基本生活消费高、医疗消费低。随时期推移，空巢老年人的基本生活消费下降，医疗消费、发展型消费和享受型消费上升。较早出生队列的城乡空巢老年人的基本生活消费高、医疗消费低，较晚出生队列的城镇夫妇空巢老年人的发展型消费高，乡村空巢老年人发展型消费的队列差异小。城乡独居空巢老年人和城镇夫妇空巢老年人的享受型消费的年龄效应和队列效应不显著。空巢老年人的经济能力、社会保障水平、健康状况、认知能力和网络能力通过社会参与对其消费结构产生显著影响。提高经济收入、注重疾病预防和健康管理、扩大社会参与有利于空巢老年人的消费结构升级。

关键词: 空巢老年人, 与家人同住老年人, 消费结构, 城乡差异