Abstract: Both theoretical and empirical analyses show that the relationship between population development and carbon emissions is dynamic,and the population elasticity of carbon emissions is a nonlinear function of population size,age structure,household size,urbanization,sex structure,and economic development.This paper argues that the model based on the hypothesis that the relationship between population and carbon emissions is nonlinear results in a better simulation to the historical data than does the traditional model,and also a better representation of the effects of population development and economic growth on carbon emissions.The effects of population development on carbon emissions are quite different in developed and developing countries.Therefore,coping strategies need to be adopted according to the actual situation of population development in order to mitigate climate change.

Keywords: Population, Carbon Emissions, Nonlinear Relationship, Regression Analysis, Elasticity Coefficient

摘要： 理论和实证分析表明,人口和碳排放的关系具有动态性,碳排放量对人口要素的弹性系数是人口数量、年龄结构、家庭规模、城市化、性别结构、经济发展水平等因素的非线性函数。本文发现,基于人口和碳排放非线性关系假设构建的碳排放模型对历史数据的拟合能力明显优于传统模型,能够较好地揭示不同人口发展阶段和经济发展水平下的人口动态对于碳排放的影响。从各国人口发展实际状况出发,制定相应的减排策略是应对气候变化的必然选择。

关键词: 人口, 碳排放, 非线性, 回归分析, 弹性系数