Abstract: Farmers’ current status and the factors influencing their participation in the New Rural Social Pension Insurance are central to a successful conduct of the insurance pilot work.Drawing on data from a sample survey in Liaoning Province’s Zhangwu County,this paper examines patterns and determinants of farmer’s participation in the insurance by individual characteristics,policy confidence,and policy implementation.The survey shows that there are institutional barriers to participating in the New Rural Pension Insurance.The polit policies have attracted participants who are at low income,low education,poor health,and elder ages approaching insurance return.Understanding of the policy,convenience of the procedures for insurance participation,and attitude of service providers are the factors that have positive impact on participation.Based on the analysis,this paper discusses policy implications for improvement and development of the insurance,including establishing incentives for participating in the insurance with individual accounts,raising awareness of service,ensuring policy sustainability,and establishing linkage mechanisms for a variety of pension systems.

Keywords: New Rural Social Pension Insurance, Participation Decision, Influencing Factors, Binary Logistic Regression

摘要： 农民的现实情况及参保决策的影响因素是新型农村养老保险试点工作顺利推进的关键因素。以新型农村养老保险试点县彰武县2363个样本的问卷调查结果为基础,综合运用描述统计、交叉列联表卡方检验和二分类Logistic回归分析方法,从个体特征层面、政策信任层面、政策推广实施层面分析农民参加新型农村养老保险的影响因素。结果表明:"新农保"试点政策存在制度缺位。"新农保"试点政策吸引中低收入水平、中低学历程度、健康水平低、参保回报时间短的人群。政策了解程度、参保手续便捷、经办人员服务态度等因素对农民参保决策有正向影响。据此提出建立有效的个人账户参保激励机制、提升基层工作人员宣传服务意识、保证政策实施的可持续性、建立多种养老保障制度之间的联动机制来促进"新农保"政策的完善与发展。

关键词: 新型农村养老保险, 参保决策, 影响因素, 二项logistic回归