Abstract: China has been urbanizing and big cities have been growing rapidly.Number of megacities in China increased from 34 in 1997 to 63 in 2007.There are substantial disputes over China’s urbanization strategy to prioritize big cities or medium and small-sized cities.Development of big cities faces challenges in transportation,housing,environment and resources and public services,and population control becomes increasingly important in big cities.This issue of Population and Development Forum is specifically devoted to population control in China’s megacities,for which three population experts were invited to share their views and suggestions.Professor Huang Ronglong,from Nanjing Normal University,argues that the major cause of China’s urban disease is not overpopulation but ill management of the cities.However,Professor Ding Jinhong,from East China Normal University,has a different view and asserts that a permanent cure to urban disease is population control.Talking on population control in Beijing,Professor Duan Chengrong,from People’s University of China,suggests the population control strategy be changed from a local to a national perspective.Three experts also provide policy suggestions in population control,city planning and management,industrial upgrading,mechanisms in evaluating demographic effect of social and economic programs,etc.Professor Liu Feng,from Development Research Center of the State Council,chairs the Forum and provides comments to the three papers and his own opinions as well.

摘要： 随着城市化快速推进, 我国的大城市发展迅速, 特大城市¹ 从1997年的34个增长到2007年的63个。近年来, 某些特大城市显现出来的一系列交通拥堵、资源匮乏、环境污染、住房紧张、公共服务失衡等城市问题, 引发了各方热议。“特大城市人口规模如何调控? 如何管理”, 越来越成为各方关注的热点和焦点。以往在优先发展大城市还是优先发展小城镇方面一直存在着分歧, 对城市人口容量、人口调控的认识差异颇大, 既有对特大城市高唱赞歌的, 也有大力主张发展小城镇的。
两个多世纪以来工业化的经验表明, 经济和人口的聚集是各国经济发展过程中的普遍规律。在城市化不可逆转、大城市必然增多的发展阶段, 特大城市如何应对人口规模调控? 如何进行有效治理? 这是我们当前急需回答的重大理论问题, 也是十分紧迫的现实问题。纵观世界, 既有诸如莫斯科、巴黎、纽约和东京等成功的经验, 也有拉美、南亚等地区的一些大城市的失败教训。我们该何去何从?
本论坛特邀请南京师范大学人口研究所黄润龙教授、中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心段成荣教授、华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心、人口研究所丁金宏教授发表各自的看法, 就“特大城市如何调控人口规模”进行研讨。我们期待更多的专家学者从不同角度参与该话题的讨论, 以辨明方向, 更渴求能找到针对现实问题的破解之道。

关键词: 城市人口规模, 流动人口, 特大城市, 北京市, 人口调控, 交通拥堵, 城市化进程, 人口密度, 人口容量, 外来人口