The Effect of Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth in China in the context of Structural Change and Institutional Transitio

Population Research ›› 2011, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 3-14.

The Effect of Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth in China in the context of Structural Change and Institutional Transitio

Che Shiyi¹, Guo Lin²

1 The People’s Bank of China, Beijing 100800; 2 Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100800

Online:2011-03-29 Published:2012-11-18
Contact: cshiyi@ pbc.gov.cn
About author:1 PhD in Economics, Staff Member of the People's Bank of China; 2 PhD Candidate, Center for Population and Development Studies，Renmin University of China

结构转变、制度变迁下的人口红利与经济增长

车士义¹，郭琳²

1 中国人民银行，北京 100800；2 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心，北京 100800

通讯作者: cshiyi@ pbc.gov.cn
作者简介:1 经济学博士，中国人民银行职员; 2 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心博士研究生
基金资助:
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“中国的人口转变与经济增长”(项目编号10XNI013);中国人民大学研究生科学研究基金项目“农村地区的家庭背景、个人进城与城市化”(项目编号11XNH101)

Abstract

Abstract: The major structural and institutional changes have not been accounted for in the existing empirical studies of impact of demographic dividend on economic growth in China.This paper examines the impacts of demographic dividend on economic growth by using Error Correction Model and time series data from 1978 to 2008.The model incorporates variables representing structural change and institutional transition.Results show that fixed asset investment has the greatest influence on China’s economic growth,followed by technological progress,institutional transition,and structural change.The impact of the demographic dividend is significant,but it has fewer shares to explain economic growth.Thus,in the future,with gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend,China needs to rely more on investment growth,technological progress,structural change and institutional transition.

Keywords: Structural Change, Institutional Transition, Demographic Dividend, Economic Growth

摘要： 已有的对人口红利影响经济增长的实证研究未将结构和制度的重大变革纳入模型，这与东亚及我国经济增长的现实不符。本文通过在模型中纳入结构转变和制度变迁变量，用1978～2008年的数据进行误差修正分析,计算出在结构转变和制度变迁的背景下，我国人口红利及各要素对经济增长的影响。结果发现,固定资产投资对我国经济增长的影响程度最大，其次是技术进步，第三是制度变迁,结构变化的影响也很显著。人口红利的影响也较显著,但是其对经济增长解释力度较小。因此随着人口红利的逐渐消失,未来的经济增长更需要依靠投资、技术进步、结构变迁和制度变革。

关键词: 结构转变, 制度变迁, 人口红利, 经济增长

Che Shiyi, Guo Lin. The Effect of Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth in China in the context of Structural Change and Institutional Transitio[J]. Population Research, 2011, 35(2): 3-14.

车士义，郭琳. 结构转变、制度变迁下的人口红利与经济增长[J]. 人口研究, 2011, 35(2): 3-14.

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