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Evaluation and Adjustment of First Marriage Data in China's Censuses
Yang Liuqing, Guo Zhen, Peng Yuan
Population Research
2025, 49 (2):
99-116.
Using data from China's 6th and 7th Censuses, this study assesses the accuracy of first marriage statistics, applies necessary adjustments, and explores their implications for analyzing marriage patterns. The findings reveal that trends in census-reported first marriages largely align with civil registration records but have been lower than those in civil records since 2010. Comparisons between the 6th and 7th Censuses reveal discrepancies in first marriage counts from 1980 to 2010. According to the 7th Census, the number of first marriages in 2010 was 2.53 times higher for males and 2.34 times higher for females than those recorded in the 6th Census. Data adjustments are crucial, as raw census data consistently underestimate historical first marriage levels nationwide and overestimate mean ages at first marriage. Adjusted data indicate notable shifts in China's first marriage patterns since 1980, with sharper declines in total first marriage rates and faster increases in the mean age at first marriage from 2010 to 2020.
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