Table of Content

29 May 2017, Volume 41 Issue 3

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Parity，Timing of Birth，and Fertility: A Comparative Study on the Trends and Differential Mechanism of the Mean Age at Childbearing in China，Japan，and Korea

Song Jian,Zhang Jingwen

2017, 41(3):  3-14. 

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Using fertility data from national authorities and national censuses of China，Japan，and South Korea，this study analyzes the levels and trends of mean age at childbearing ( MAC) of the three countries from 1990 to 2015. After isolating the effects of parity composition and childbearing schedule respectively by decomposition technique，the article examines quantitatively the mechanism that underlies dynamic changes and cross-national differences of MACs. Results indicate that the MAC of China experienced a decrease between 1990 and 1995，followed by a sustaining growth afterwards. The increase of MAC in China is driven by the postponement of childbearing and the changes of parity composition， with the former playing a larger role. The inherent mechanism since 2010 deserves special attention. Compared with Japan and Korea，China still has relatively lower overall and parity-specific MACs. Although all of the three countries have witnessed an increase of MAC during the past 25 years， they demonstrate different patterns in terms of the roles of parity composition and birth timing. The accuracy of MAC in identifying the timing of period fertility and the policy implications of timing on upturning fertility level are discussed.

Impact of Labor Supply on Economic Growth in China: A Factor Decomposition Analysis

Tong Yufen,Wang Jingwen

2017, 41(3):  15-25. 

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 Labor supply is an important source of economic growth．In this paper，we use the factorization method to quantify the contribution of labour supply in China's economic growth by decomposing the labor supply factor into the population size，the proportion of working-age population，and the labor participation rate factors．We put them all into the classic Cobb-Douglas production function．Based on the theoretical model derivation，this paper analyzes the time series data from 1978 to 2015．The results show that labor supply has a significant contribution to China's economic growth in a long term．Its impact and contribution are less significant than the fixed assets，but much greater than the human cap- ital．The main contribution of China's economic growth comes from the input of material capital rather than the labor supply．All of the three variables representing the scale of labor supply have significant effects on economic growth in the same direction，but the magnitude of the effects varies．The order of the contribution and elasticity of the three factors to the total economic output are the total population，the proportion of the working-age population，and the labor participation rate．Finally， in recent years the decrease of the proportion of working-age population does suppress China's economic growth，but this negative impact is to some extent offset by the increase in the size of the total population．

Determinants of Utilization of Social Care Service for Older Persons in China

Du Peng,Wang Yongmei

2017, 41(3):  26-37. 

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The supply-demand imbalance in social care service for older persons is attracting more and more attention in ageing studies. From the demand-side perspective，this paper discusses the regu- larity in the social care service utilization. Based on the multi-dimensional human nature hypothesis of “Biological Man-Economic Man-Social Man”，this paper examines influencing factors of utilization of social care service for older persons using data of China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey ( CLASS) in 2014 and multivariate linear regression model. The research finds that physiological，economic，and social properties of older persons have significant influence on the service utilization. The services tend to be mostly utilized by the intellectuals，the high-to-medium income group，and those with better social capital. There are salient differences in the influencing factors affecting the service utilization in urban and ru- ral areas. The service utilization in rural areas is mainly driven by physiological properties and that in ur- ban areas is determined by their economic and social properties.

Population Size，Consumption Structure and Environmental Efficiency

Luo Nengsheng,Zhang Mengdi

2017, 41(3):  38-52. 

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The expanding population and the transformation of consumption structure are the key factors that affect the sustainable development of national economy and the sustainable use of re- sources in an all-round way．This paper measures the environmental efficiency by super-efficiency DEA method，and studies the impact of population size and consumption structure on environmental efficiency based on the STIRPAT model．The results show that from 2000 to 2013，the environmental efficiency of China's provinces demonstrated a declining trend of volatility with large regional differences．At this stage，the expansion of the population size has a negative impact on the environmental efficiency in China．Meanwhile，consumption structure，as an important intermediate variable linking population and environment，shows different relationship patterns with environmental efficiency according to different types of consumption structure．Specifically，the relationship between subsistence and enjoyment consumption with the environmental efficiency has a u-shape，the inflection points of which are 60． 18% and 29. 20% ， while the relationship between development consumption and the environmental efficiency shows a line- ar positive correlation．With the upgrade of consumption structure，the negative impact of population size on environmental efficiency will be altered．

An Empirical Ｒesearch of Elderly Consumption in Urban and Rural China: With Analysis of“Retirement-Consumption Puzzle”

Shi Beibei

2017, 41(3):  53-64. 

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 In the context of aging population，insufficient consuming capability，and the downward pressure of economy，releasing the consumption of elderly population is challenging but with full oppor- tunities．By using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey ( CHARLS) data，the study finds that the elderly consumption level is lower than the national average．The consumption structure is similar between urban and rural elderly population．By using the one-way ANOVA and the multivariate regression analysis，our results further suggest that the elderly consumption will increase after retirement． Older people's consumption can be promoted by the advancement of individual characteristics，functional family interaction，and sound social security system．Especially，income and education demonstrate a strong impact．Such phenomenon is more apparent in rural area．We propose that the development of urban and rural areas should be coordinated．Furthermore，the government should provide comprehensive products and effective services for the elderly， so as to stimulate their consumption and to promote the domestic consumption demand．

The Impacts of Adult Children's Out-migration on the Livelihood Capital of Elderly Household in Rural China

Song Lu,Li Shuzhuo

2017, 41(3):  65-75. 

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This paper analyzes the impacts of adult children's out-migration on the rural elderly households’livelihood capitals by employing the data obtained from the survey of“Well-being of Elderly in Anhui Province，China”conducted by the Institute for Population and Development of Xi’an Jiao- tong University in 2015. It is found that there are significant differences in the amount and structure of livelihood capitals according to whether the elderly household has migrating children，but the degree of influence from children's out-migration is conditioned by the household composition. The migration of adult children widens the gap in the financial capital of the rural elderly living with their adult children， while it compensates the disadvantages of the physical，human，and social capital of the rural elderly not living with their adult children. However，there is no significant influence of the adult children's outmigration on the elderly household's natural capital which is the important resource of their livelihood.

Explaining the Puzzle of Gender Difference of Functional Limitation Incidence of Chinese Elderly

Wen Xingxiang

2017, 41(3):  76-86. 

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 There exists marked gender difference of functional limitation incidence among Chinese elderly. Specifically，women are more likely to suffer from difficulties of activity of daily living. This paper intends to explain this puzzle from the perspective of family human capital investment with the son preference that results in gender difference of educational attainment. Cognition is critical for maintaining ac- tivity of daily living and education has a positive effect on cognition at older age. Thus，gender difference in education in early life is transmitted to gender difference of functional limitation in later life. We verify this hypothesis by using CHARLS baseline data and find that cognition，especially the crystallized intelligence part，has an important effect on the reduction of functional limitation impairment rate. With the improvement of girl's education，better health equality can be achieved among older men and women.

Patterns and Determinates of Premarital Pregnancy in China

Li Ding,Tian Siyu

2017, 41(3):  87-100. 

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The rising incidence of premarital pregnancy is largely an indication of the rapid change of the attitudes and practices about sex and marriage in China．Pregnancies ended with abortion also imply new threats to women’ s health and development．Based on discussing the data bias and theoretical shortages in past research，we propose new frames to measure and analyze this problem．Using data from the 2013 National Floating Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey we examine age，peri- od，and cohort trends in premarital pregnancy，and test hypotheses about the effect of migration．Re- sults show that younger cohorts have higher incidence of premarital pregnancy promoted by migration， especially for the rural migrants and those with lower education．We suggest to collect more data on premarital sex behavior and pregnancy，and to offer family planning services for the youth and adults who have not yet married．

A Spatial-temporal Study of Inter-provincial Migration Pattern during Chinese Spring Festival Travel Rush

Zhao Ziyu,Wang Shijun

2017, 41(3):  101-112. 

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Based on Baidu migration data，this paper constructs the relationship matrix of population movement，and fully depicts the spatial agglomeration and diffusion process of inter-provincial circulation of Chinese population in the eastern，central and western regions during the spring festival of 2015．The conclusions are as follows: ( 1) February 13th-17th and February 25th-March 1st are respectively the back-home flow and the postganglionic return flow peak periods; ( 2) The inter-provincial flow is char- acterized by both near field and spatial dependency．Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei，Yangtze River Delta，and Pearl River Delta city group led the high-intensity population flows，and form three fan-shaped radiation areas; ( 3) we identify 94 population inflow cities and 242 outflow cities．The population agglomeration along the coastal areas and the population collapse in middle areas form the double vertical pattern of the floating population in China．