Table of Content

29 May 2020, Volume 44 Issue 3

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Trends and Patterns of Negative Population Growth in China

Zhang Xianling,Zhai Zhenwu,Tao Tao

2020, 44(3):  3-20. 

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For thousands of years, the Chinese population has approximately been following exponential growth, with occasionally short-term exogenous decrease. In the 1990s, the intrinsic rate of natural increase turned negative, indicating the accumulation of negative population growth momentum. One quarter of prefecturelevel regions in China experienced negative population growth by 2010, as a result of population floating and migration. Population natural decrease was observed in 8% of county-level regions in China in 2010. According to the medium-variant population projection, China's population growth would become negative after 2027. The negative growth of working-age population would be much earlier and more rapidly than that of total population in the first half of this century. The older population would grow rapidly during this period. Negative population growth is not only a matter of quantity, but also of structure, which is directly affected by fertility, mortality and age structure changes. The mutually reinforcing process might happen between negative population growth and ageing. 

Negative Population Growth，Labor Supply and Employment

Lin Bao

2020, 44(3):  21-37. 

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Based on the data of the United Nations and the International Labor Organization, this article explores the relationship between negative population growth and labor force participation. There is a significant age (group) transmission process of negative population growth. Most countries and regions follow the development track of negative growth from population aged 0-14 to population aged 15-59, and then to total population. The relationship between negative population growth and labor force, labor force participation rate, and unemployment rate tends to be more detached. The negative growth of population aged 15-59 and labor force in China has already begun. The total population of China will step into the negative growth stage between 2027 and 2029, in which a slow decline in labor force is expected, but there will still be problems such as cyclical unemployment and structural unemployment. The article concludes with discussion on policy implications regarding raising fertility, delaying retirement age, grasping the rhythm of economic structural transformation and its employment shock, and enhancing quality of laborers and promoting the labor force participation.

Decline Trajectories of the Cognitive Function and Cohort Differences among the Chinese Oldest-old

Zhang Wenjuan,Li Nian

2020, 44(3):  38-52. 

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Based on data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), this study examines the decline of cognitive functions among the Chinese oldest-old born in 1899-1908, 1909-1918 and 1919-1928 using hierarchical linear model (HLM). As one ages, his/her cognitive functions continuously decrease, and such decrease accelerates before death. There are significant cohort differences in the decline trajectories of cognitive functions among the oldest-old. For the later-born cohorts with longer life expectancy, the decline of cognitive functions is delayed, and they also have better cognitive functions than the earlierborn. However, the later-born cohorts experience longer periods of cognitive impairments before death. Besides, there is strong heterogeneity in older people, and those with better socioeconomic environments, healthier states, and more active behavioral patterns have better cognitive performance.

A Familial-Social Care Model for Home-based Older Adults in China

Ji Jingyao

2020, 44(3):  53-70. 

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Employing data from 2016 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey(CLASS 2016), this paper analyzes the relationship between family care and social care. A theoretical analysis framework is constructed for the home-based older adults in China—the familial-social care model—based on Parsons structural functionalism and life course theory. The results show that, overall, social care reduces the burden of family members, but the relationship is non-linear. Whether the relationship is substitutive or supplementary depends on the types of social care, health status of the elderly, and endowment of familys economic resources. The theoretical analysis suggests that to achieve the precise matching of social care resources, the older adults subjective initiative and health status, care types, economic status and other individual factors should be taken into account. At the same time, the impacts of macro-level factors, such as the elderly supportive service system and care policy, on individual behaviors depend on the development level of urban and rural areas and also the interplay between service supply and demand.

Influential Factors of Urban Elderly's Participation in Community Governance from the Perspective of Person-Environment Fit: Evidence from Beijing

Xie Lili,Chen Minqiang

2020, 44(3):  71-84. 

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Community governance needs to engage the elderly under the background of population ageing. Based on the theory of person-environment fit, this paper explores the influence of institutional capacity and personal preference on the participation of the elderly in community governance activities in Beijing by using data from 2019 Beijing Social Governance in Ageing Society Survey. The results show that 67.36% of the elderly have a willingness to participate in community governance activities while the actual participation rate is rather low. Institutional capacities of community organizations are barely satisfactory and gaps exist from the needs of the elderly. Better institutional capacities are significantly associated with higher participation of the elderly in community governance activities. In addition, the elderly's preference for the institutional capacity has a moderating effect on the aforementioned relationship. In order to reduce the constraints of institutional barriers on the participation of the elderly, priorities should be given to the abilities valued by the elderly when community organizations carry out community governance activities with limited resources.

The High-Speed Railway as a Driving Force of Urbanization in China

Chen Wei,Wang Ruocheng

2020, 44(3):  85-101. 

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China is a country with the fastest growing high-speed railway, which is radically changing peoples commuting and travelling patterns, as well as promoting urbanization by reshaping urban spatial patterns in China. However, wide disputes exist in the role of high-speed railway in driving China's urbanization. This paper explores urban spatial patterns and the role of high-speed railway at China's prefecture level over 2010-2016 using MODIS remote sensing data and spatial panel analysis. The results suggest that there is an increasing tendency of urban agglomeration, and the Yangzi River Delta Region has witnessed the most rapid pace of urbanization. The impact of high-speed railway on urbanization depends on the development level of the city and the location of the highspeed railway station. High-speed railway significantly enhances the speed of urbanization with a larger effect in medium and small cities.

Spatio-Temporal Differentiation and Comprehensive Mechanism of Irregular Migration of Children in China: Comparison between Child Trafficking and Informal Adoption

Li Gang,Xue Shuyan,Ma Xueyao,Zhou Junjun,Wang Jiaobei,Xu Tingting

2020, 44(3):  102-117. 

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Child trafficking and informal adoption are major types of irregular migration of children in China. Based on the data obtained from the public welfare platform, this paper examines the spatio-temporal differentiation pattern and the comprehensive mechanism of the two types of irregular migration. The results indicate that there are more males than females in child trafficking but less males in informal adoption. The trafficked children are mainly 1-6 years old, while the adopted children are largely under 1. The irregular migration has occurred mainly among rural families, and presented a temporal trend of “high in the middle and low in both ends” over the period under study, with the highest rates in Sichuan and Henan Provinces. Affected by the gradient force of regional differences, the irregular migration of Chinese children is intervened by the other “two parties” to carry out a “three places” flow mode, thereby leading to a passive and irregular migration.

Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Population Research

Huang Kuangshi

2020, 44(3):  118-128. 

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Artificial intelligence, as a simulation of human intelligence, has ushered a new era for demographic research. It enriches the connotation of population and expands the research object of population from human population to intelligent population. Artificial intelligence has a profound impact on human population, labor force, low fertility, ageing, health, migration, population in poverty, population governance, population security, and demographic methods. In the era of artificial intelligence, we should vigorously develop intelligent demography, promote the application of intelligent population in digital economy, population governance, population monitoring, population census, health management, emergency management, war simulation, epidemic prevention and control, intelligent city construction, and public services improvement. We also need to strengthen the collaborative governance between artificial intelligence and population development, explore the impact of humancomputer collaborative development on national governance and socioeconomic development. Specifically, we have to construct intelligent ethics and thus ensure the development of artificial intelligence and population in a controllable range, avoiding major risks to population security.