Table of Content

29 March 2020, Volume 44 Issue 2

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Estimating the Prevalence of Infertility in China Using Census Data

Zhai Zhenwu and Liu Wenli

2020, 44(2):  3-17. 

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Some reports claim that Chinese womens infertility rate stands at around 15%, which might adversely affect the fertility rate. However, studies in different fields adopt different definitions and measurements of infertility, leading to considerable variations in prevalence estimates. The estimate (i.e. 15%) might be developed based on clinical or epidemiological definition, which does not necessarily mean that 15% of women are incapable of giving births throughout their lives. From the perspective of cohort fertility, we estimate the proportion of Chinese women aged 40-64 who have never given live births based on data from population censuses and annual sampling surveys. We argue that the proportion of women aged 40 and above reporting no live births or pregnancies has always been much lower than 15%. Universally Chinese women have given birth to at least one child by the end of their childbearing age.

Interregional Labor Mobility, Demographic Dividend, and Total Factor Productivity Growth: The Transformation of China's Demographic Dividend in the New Era

Wang TingCheng HaoWang Kebin

2020, 44(2):  18-32. 

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In the new era of high-quality economic development, the demographic dividend in China needs to transform from the quantity dividend of labor force to the efficiency dividend of labor allocation, and the key to release the efficiency dividend of labor allocation is to guide the flow of labor force between regions reasonably. This paper constructs a two-region equilibrium model and reveals the theoretical mechanism of interregional labor mobility to promote the growth of total factor productivity leading to releasing the efficiency dividend of labor allocation. Our empirical analysis shows that there is a downward trend in the efficiency dividend of labor allocation in China which even decays prior to the quantitative dividend of labor force. The inflection point of “non-significant” appeared to occur in 2006. Interregional labor mobility promotes the release of labor allocation efficiency dividend at the one percent significant level, and the increased labor mobility has had an acceleration effect. The heterogeneity test suggests that in the area with greater elasticity of labor price supply or higher marginal production capacity of labor force, increased labor inflow would promote the release of labor allocation efficiency dividend.

How Large is the Motherhood Penalty in Urban China?

Liu Jinju

2020, 44(2):  33-43. 

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Opportunity cost of childbearing is one of the fundamental theories explaining family fertility decision and fertility decline in developed countries. It is also an important factor driving the trend of low fertility in China, particularly the ultra-low fertility in the large cities, and the much lower effects of the two-child policy than expected. This research aims to address the question of measuring opportunity cost of childbearing in urban China. Using data from 2017 China National Fertility Survey and life table method, estimation results suggest that bearing and rearing of one child would bring loss of 6-7 years of working life expectancy, converting into a wage loss of nearly 300 thousand yuan. This wage loss is estimated to be 480 thousand yuan for women with college education and over, and 580 thousand yuan for women living in largest cities Beijing and Shanghai. Future research can examine differences in opportunity cost of childbearing among women in different occupations, different sectors and different regions.

Effects of Education on Marital Status of Chinese Elderly: An Empirical Study Based on Three-wave CLASS Data

Song Jian,Liu Zhiqiang

2020, 44(2):  44-59. 

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Marital status is closely related to living arrangements and life quality of the older people, but its determinants have received limited attention. This paper analyzes the effect of education on the marital status of Chinese elderly based on the three-wave CLASS data collected in 2014, 2016 and 2018. The results indicate that education has a significant positive impact: older adults with higher educational attainment are more likely to be currently married.  The total effect of education can be decomposed into explicit and implicit effects. By using mediating effect test method, the KHB method and by calculating the mediating zstatistic, this study finds that education affects marital status partly through income and pension. In addition, the analysis shows that the effect of education on the marital status of the elderly is moderated by gender, residence and age.


Health Transition and Medical Expenditure of the Elderly in China

Gao Yuan,Yuan Xin

2020, 44(2):  60-72. 

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Population ageing is one of the greatest challenges for the human society in the 21st century, impacting social and economic development of all the countries in the world. This paper focuses on health and medical expenditure of the elderly in the context of rapid population ageing in China. Based on the Health Transition and Two Part Models, it analyzes the fitted value of the transition probabilities and medical expenditure of disabled elderly. On the basis of future elderly population in China, it predicts the size of Chinese elderly with various health statuses and the trend of medical expenditure. The study finds that the elderly with mild disability have better health maintenance probability and better health improvement probability, while the elderly with moderate and severe disabilities have higher risk of becoming poor health status or death. Along with the increase of the elderly, the size of disabled elderly population in China is expanding, which exerts great pressure on medical services and medical expenditure.

Negative Life Events and Mental Health of Chinese Older Adults: The Moderating Effects of Social Network and Coping Style

Sun Juanjuan,Jiang Weikang

2020, 44(2):  73-86. 

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Negative life events largely affect older adults mental health and thus should be understood and addressed carefully to improve the life quality of the elderly. Based on the socioemotional selectivity theory, and using the data of 2014 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey, this paper analyzes the impacts of negative life events on Chinese older adults' mental health, and explores the moderating effects of social networks and coping styles. The results show that, during the year before the survey, 28% of the Chinese elderly have experienced at least one negative life event. This experience is negatively correlated with the mental health of the elderly. The results from multiple regression analysis suggest that family network, friend network and active coping style have a positive effect on mental health, while negative coping will adversely influence the mental health of older adults. Therefore, both the internal coping style of the elderly and external network resources, especially the family supports, should be promoted to reduce the harmful effects of negative events on older adults' mental health.

The Effect of Household Leverage Ratio on Urban and Rural Fertility: An Empirical Test Based on Generalized OLG Model

Liu Qingrui,Liu Shuna

2020, 44(2):  87-101. 

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Since the beginning of this century, the leverage ratio of household has been rapidly rising in China. The household leverage ratio has a significant impact on the household consumption and childbearing activities. This paper constructs a generalized OLG model of family fertility to empirically test the influence of household leverage ratio on fertility using the data from CFPS. The empirical results show as follows: Firstly, leverage ratio has significant negative influence on the parity-specific fertility of urban and rural households. The housing leverage ratio shows a greater impact. Secondly, there is heterogeneity in the effect of leverage ratio on fertility: urban families and families with only one house are more likely to be affected. Thirdly, the age at first birth will also significantly increase with the increase of leverage ratio, through which leverage ratio will further reduce lifetime fertility rate. Finally, this paper discusses the public policy options for reducing the fertility effect of household leverage in China.

Social Exclusion and Health of Left-behind Children from Distressed Families

Song Yueping,Han Xiao,Cui Longtao

2020, 44(2):  102-112. 

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Children in distressed families are one of the most disadvantaged groups in survival and development, and also in need of protection from public policies. Most children in the distressed families are left-behind children, suffering from health problems. Based on the survey data of “Research on the health status of children in distressed families”, this paper focuses on mental health of left-behind children in distressed families, and also explores the factors contributing to their mental health problems from the perspective of social exclusion. The results show that, compared to other children in rural areas, the mental health problem of left-behind children in distressed families is severer. Further analysis suggests that the social exclusion faced by these children is an important factor leading to mental health risks. Aside from family development related policies, a child-friendly community environment reducing the exclusion and marginalization and promoting the social integration of left-behind children in distressed families is also needed to improve their health status.