Table of Content

29 January 2021, Volume 45 Issue 1

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Increasing Life Expectancy, Pension Risks, and Policy Responses

Mu Huaizhong, Fan Lulu, Chen Xi

2021, 45(1):  3-18. 

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With the trend of increasingly longer life expectancy, the pension risks rise. Under the constraint of actuarial equilibrium in the life cycle of pension insurance, policy designs largely affect peoples livelihood and consumption in the postepidemic period. The results show that: longer life expectancy will exacerbate decline of the replacement rate of average social wage and increase the risk of pension security in the last years of life. Increasing the pension adjustment index of older retirees is one of the policy options to solve the problem. However, raising the adjustment level will raise the actuarial imbalance risk over the life cycle. It is difficult to solve the dilemma between raising the pension payment and maintaining the actuarial balance by raising the minimum number of years for contributions. Delaying retirement as well as linking the calculation and payment coefficient of individual account, life expectancy, and adjustment index can realize the Pareto improvement of raising the level of security and maintaining the actuarial balance.

Hierarchy and Structure of Policy Needs for Childcare in the Era of Low-Fertility:An Empirical Analysis Based on Survey Data from Xi'an City

Yang Xueyan, Gao Chenzhuo, Jing Wen

2021, 45(1):  19-35. 

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Based on the survey data collected from people at childbearing age in Xi'an city, this research analyzes the hierarchy and structure of policy needs for childcare. Results show that childcare services and tax deduction for people having a second child are at the first and second levels of policy needs, respectively. For people with different numbers of children, the levels of policy needs for child-rearing guidance, cash benefits for people having a second child, extended paternity leave and extended maternity leave also differ. More than half of the respondents have high demands for various childcare policy supports. There are six types of policy needs for child care: high demand for all policies, demand for childcare services, demand for financial aids and parental leave, demand for financial aids and childcare services, demand for parental leave and childcare services, and low demand for all policies. Policy needs for childcare are affected by individual attributes and family characteristics. Policy makers should design childcare policies based on policy needs of people at childbearing age.

Impact of Demographic Uncertainty on Population Projection and Policy-Making: The Case of China

Zhang Zhen, Li Qiang

2021, 45(1):  36-49. 

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The future is uncertain, and so are the future populations. This uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of population dynamics. It is affected by various factors such as socio-economic development, technological advances, and even cultural change. Understanding demographic uncertainty is essential in policy-making based on population projection. In recent decades, various methods have been developed to describe the uncertainty, including probabilistic forecast. However, such methods have not got enough attention in China, where the population tends to be highly uncertain due to rapid demographic transition and social transformation. In this paper, we investigate the uncertainty and its policy implications. Specifically, we focus on three major aspects of China's population:the number of births, particularly in the era of universal two-child policy, the number of total population, and the target population of regional planning. Overlooking or underestimating demographic uncertainty can lead to misleading projection results for policy makers and the public. We are in need of developing methods for China's population projections.

Impact of Destination City on Settlement Intention of Floating Population：Based on the Family Life Cycle Theory

Yu Xiao, Xu Yingdong

2021, 45(1):  50-67. 

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This paper introduces the family life cycle theory to decompose the impact of the destination city's characteristics on the settlement intention of floating population. It is found that housing affordability has the greatest crowding-out effect on the settlement intention of floating people in family formation period; public services have the most significant pulling effect on the settlement intention of floating people in family expansion period; social integration has the largest pulling effect on family shrinkage. In family formation period, the crowding-out effect of housing affordability is greater for the low-educated and low-income floating population; in family expansion period, the pulling effect of public services has indistinguishable impact on the high & low-educated or high & low-income groups; during family shrinkage period, the pulling effect of social integration has a stronger impact on low-educated and low-income floating population. Using family life cycle theory to study the group heterogeneity of the impact of the destination city on the settlement intention of the floating population helps implement the strategic deployment of “people-centered” new urbanization.

Fertility Intention of Chinese Women and Its Determinants under the Universal Two-Child Policy：Based on the 2017 National Fertility Survey

Zhuang Yaer, Jiang Yu, Li Bohua

2021, 45(1):  68-81. 

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Based on the data from 2017 national fertility survey, this paper analyzes patterns and determinants of fertility intention in China under the universal two-child policy. The survey suggests that womens average ideal number of children is 1.96 and the average number of intended children is 1.76. For women born in the 1990s and beyond, the number of children they intend to have is 1.70, while for women who have not yet had any children, their intended number of children is 1.60, both are lower than the current average, indicating that there is room for a further decline in the fertility in China. About 9.3 percent of women intend to have three or more children. Among women who have at least two children, the corresponding proportion of women whose first two are girls is 45.6 percent. The regional difference of the intended number of children is more apparent. Sex-selective abortion inhibits fertility intentions and reduces the number of birth, however, in the case of unsatisfactory sex composition of children and tendency to continue to have children, son preference plays a role in strengthening fertility intention and increasing the number of births.

The Second Demographic Dividend and Economic Growth: Theories, Mechanisms, and Simulations

Wang Shu

2021, 45(1):  82-97. 

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This article systemically reviews the “Second Demographic Dividend” theories and dissects the inner functional mechanisms. Base on the perspective of dual capital deepening, we reexamine and predict the “Second Demographic Dividend”. We use the theoretical model and numerical method to do the simulation analysis. The study finds that the inner driving mechanism of the “Second Demographic Dividend” roots in the sustaining action of the “Demographic Prospective Dividend” and the “Demographic Quality Dividend”. The moderate ageing and low birth rate of our country can help form the “Demographic Prospective Dividend” and lengthen the “QuantityQuality substitution”. The “Demographic Prospective Dividend” and the “Demographic Quality Dividend” can strongly promote economic growth by the dual capital deepening. The numerical modeling suggests that the excessive high ageing rate and excessive low birth rate can weaken this effect farther. So we should put the appropriate population and economic policies into effect to ensure the achievement of the “Second Demographic Dividend” by our country.

Changes in Household Size and Impacts on Residential Consumption in China

Fu Chonghui, Fu Yu, Wu Liqun, Wei Qian, Jiao Guihua

2021, 45(1):  98-113. 

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This paper projects the average household size in China, and decomposes the total residential consumption into the factors of population size, household size, and consumption levels. The study finds that the average household size fluctuates around 2.5 persons per household. The proportion of households with 1 person and 2 persons will rise, 3-person and 4-person households will account for the largest proportion, while the proportion of 5-7-person households will decrease. The growth of 1-person and 2-person households is the major driving force of the growth of residential consumption. The influence of changes in household size on residential consumption exceeds that of consumption level. The changes in demographic and household factors have its own inertia, which has a rigid effect on the consumption growth. Under the trend scenario, the contribution of demographic factors to consumption will decrease while that of household factors will increase. Because changes in household size have a profound impact on society, economy, and the environment, policymaking should take into account the potential impact of changes in household size.

Impact of Family Predicament on Children's Mental Health：The Case of Parental Imprisonment

Guo Jing, Chen Shilu, Zhou Qingyu

2021, 45(1):  114-128. 

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Parental imprisonment tends to result in family predicament, causing changes in family and social environment that would bring serious psychological pressure to children. Based on the health ecological model, using the data from “Research on the Health Status of Children in Difficult Families” to analyze the impact of parental imprisonment on children's mental health from the perspective of family and social environment. The study shows that mental health status of children of prisoners is significantly worse; and family environment, social interaction and social bullying are important affecting factors. Compared with ordinary children, mental health of children of prisoners is more susceptible to negative events such as abuse by their caregivers and bad social interaction. Therefore, in addition to family environment, it is necessary to create a good social environment to reduce prejudice and discrimination against these children, to improve their growth environment and promote their physical and mental health development.