Table of Content

29 July 2022, Volume 46 Issue 4

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Reassessment of China's Fertility Level:An Analysis of the 7th Population Census Data

Zhai Zhenwu, Jin Guangzhao, Zhang Yiyang

2022, 46(4):  3-13. 

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The key to accurately assessing China's fertility level lies in high-quality data. The 7th population census has obtained data of very high quality mainly due to the newly added ID number registration and application of information technology, providing a good opportunity for reassessing China's fertility level. This study shows that the total fertility rate (TFR) of China maintained above 1.6 from 2006 to 2017, exceeded 1.7 in most of the years, but dropped sharply from 2017 to 2020. The TFR was fluctuating considerably, ranging from a low of just 1.3 in 2020 to a high of 1.89 in 2012 and 1.88 in 2017, with a 15-year average of 1.7. Fertility preferences, fertility policy adjustments, and COVID-19 had marked influence on fertility level. The average number of children ever born suggests that there is still potential for improvements in China's fertility level, and the key measure is to fully eliminate the emerging fertility inhibiting factors and build a fertility/family-friendly society to tap this potential.

Marriage Delay in China：Trends and Patterns

Chen Wei, Zhang Fengfei

2022, 46(4):  14-26. 

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The 7th Population Census of China in 2020 provides high quality data for analyzing new developments and characteristics of China's population. Capitalizing on data from China's population censuses and sample surveys, this paper analyzes trends and patterns of marriage delay in China from 1990 to 2020. Marriage delay, which has been taking place across all population groups, has accelerated in the recent decade, but the proportion staying lifetime single is still very low. Comparing with the Western countries, China has a different path to postpone marriage. Marriage delay was initiated under lower level of development in China. We use a framework of determinants of marriage by Dixon to explain marriage delay in the Chinese context. Obstacles are being intensified to marriage desirability, feasibility and availability, and marriage delay will continue, but the universal marriage pattern will not change in the short run. It is also important to recognize the heterogeneity of marriage delay, males in rural China are most likely to be leftover to become lifetime single.

Assessing Accuracy of Age Reporting in the 7th Population Census of China

Zhang Xianling, Ming Yan

2022, 46(4):  27-39. 

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Age structure is the most fundamental population structure, thus, assessing the accuracy of age reporting is an important prerequisite for census data usage. Using the data from population censuses and sample surveys, this paper employs the methods of comparing with other data sources, cohort survival ratio, modified Whipple index, and Sign Test to investigate the accuracy of age data in the 7th population census. The number of annual births estimated from population aged 0-9 in the 7th census and that releaseal by the National Bureau of Statistics are quite close, which preliminarily suggests that there is no obvious underreporting in the lowage group of the 7th census. The cohort survival ratios abnormally fluctuate in the age group of 10-40, reflecting the underreporting in the lowage group, the overreporting in youth group, and the larger overreporting of women of childbearing age than males in the 6th census. In addition, this study adopts the modified Whipple index and Sign Test method to examine the accuracy of age reporting in the 7th census. The results show that the 7th census age data is of high quality without obvious age heaping at the national level.

A Reconceptualization of China's Goals for Long-term Population Development to Strengthen the Economy

Wang Jinying, Li Zhuangyuan, Wang Dongmei

2022, 46(4):  40-54. 

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 In the process of building a modern country, China is witnessing major changes unfolding in our world, something unseen in a century. China is also facing challenges such as rapid population ageing, negative population growth and a decline in labor force that would largely impact its socioeconomic development and comprehensive strength. Based on a renewed understanding of the population development and its relationship with socioeconomic development, this paper discusses the state of population development needed to enhance the country's economic strength. It also proposes the scope and direction of China's longterm population development in the future, emphasizing the central and fundamental position of population size. To be specific, the desired population size should be between 0.9 and 1.2 billion by the end of this century. Actively changing the longterm trajectory of population development, raising the fertility rate close to the replacement level and keeping the population size between 0.9 and 1.2 billion would also improve the population structure, quality and spatial distribution, strengthening the economy.

Multidimensional Poverty of Chinese Older Adults and Its Changes between 2005 and 2018

Zhang Wenjuan, Fu Min

2022, 46(4):  55-68. 

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Employing data from CLHLS survey conducted between 2005 and 2018, this study analyzes Chinese older adults' multidimensional poverty status and changes using the AF method. This work also summarizes the multidimensional poverty pattern by utilizing the latent class analysis and estimates the impact of family and social support on different patterns of poverty. The results suggest that the older adults' multidimensional poverty index declines with an increasing contribution of health. Multidimensional poverty patterns include financialmental poverty, comprehensive health poverty and mobilityparticipation poverty. Older adults who are female, older, and have lower education show higher risks of falling into three kinds of poverty. Older adults who are rural, live alone, and lack family and social support are more likely to be in financialmental poverty. Comprehensive health poverty is more likely to be observed among older adults living with family and have relatively sufficient community health services and social pension security. Older adults with less family support, community services and social security are more likely to show mobilityparticipation poverty.

The Effect of Pension on Labor Participation of the Young Old in China

Zhao Ming, Wang Xiaojun, Li Ziwen

2022, 46(4):  69-83. 

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Previous research suggests different views regarding the effect of pension on the labor participation of the younger elderly. This paper constructs a theoretical model and uses probit model, instrument variable and propensity score matching method to explore the effect. The results show that: (1) pension has a significant negative impact on labor participation rate and labor participation time of the young old; (2) the income elasticity of labor participation of the young old is small, and there is a slight Ucurve relationship between labor participation and pension; (3) marital status, health condition and childcare show significant moderating effects; (4) the effect is more significant among women and rural young old, which is closely related to China's traditional family ethics and urbanrural divide. The results have policy implications for improving labor participation of the young older adults and implementing the strategy of actively coping with population aging.

Public Participation of Gender Imbalance Governance in the Context of Risk Society: Evidence from Hubei Province

Li Shuzhuo, Song Ruixia

2022, 46(4):  84-98. 

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China's gender imbalance has lasted for 40 years, and has become a major issue limiting the sustainable development of population and society. The increasingly significant risks arising from gender imbalance intertwined with social benefit differentiation pose challenges to the governance of gender imbalance. In the context of risk society, demands for greater public participation have emerged in policy circles. This study theoretically extends previous research on the causal mechanism of public participation and highlights useful policy implications. Building on the O-S-OR framework, the current study proposes a conceptual model to investigate whether and how trusted information acquisition influences public participation through trust and risk perception. Using data from the Social Risks and Governance of Gender Imbalance Survey conducted in 2018, and exploiting structural equation modelling, the paper finds that information acquisition is positively associated with public participation. This study also finds that the effect of information acquisition on public participation is partially mediated by government trust and risk perception of gender imbalance.

Challenges of the Second Demographic Dividend：Insights from the National Transfer Account

Yuan Yi, Li Meng, Zhang Li

2022, 46(4):  99-113. 

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Based on the theoretical framework of the national transfer account and the age decomposition of national financial flows, this paper quantifies the dynamic changes in the economic lifecycle pattern of individuals and analyzes the conditions and challenges of realizing the second demographic dividend in China. The analysis shows that: the levels of income and consumption declined significantly after the age of 60, but the financial surplus was obtainable at a very low level in old age; the role of the secondary income allocation was limited in adjusting income inequality; the number of effective consumers that each effective laborer could support declines. While China has the capacity to reconstruct its demographic dividend, challenges remain. Strengthening institutionalized pension to enhance the financial surplus in old age is an important policy consideration to capture the second demographic dividend.

Where Do the Low skilled Laborers Go in the Era of “Machine Substitution”?A Study Based on China Labor force Dynamic Survey Data

Qi Jianhong, Fu Jingjing

2022, 46(4):  114-128. 

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This study investigates the impact and mechanism of robots on the inter-city outflow of low-skilled laborers based on the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey and customs data. The results show that robots reduce the number of jobs in the secondary industry and replace the low-skilled laborers, increasing the probability of low-skilled workers' outflow across cities. In terms of industry transfer, robots lead to a higher probability of low-skilled laborers under 45 years old flowing into the service industry and low-skilled laborers above 45 years old flowing into primary industry. In terms of city transfer, the probability of low-skilled laborers flowing into the city's service industry and first-tier city's service industry has increased due to robots. In terms of inter-region movement, more educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to East China, while less educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to the west regions. The results have important policy implications for formulating policy regarding robot industry and population movement.