Table of Content

29 January 2023, Volume 47 Issue 1

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Amplification and Reduction: The Hidden Facts in China's Ageing Population and the Implications for Ageing Measurement and Theory

Chen Youhua, Sun Yongjian

2023, 47(1):  3-22. 

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Ageing measurement and manipulation is the foundation of ageing research. Due to the failure of the analytical power of traditional indicators or theories, there are many hidden facts in China’s current ageing problem. The traditional age division standard will overstate the proportion of working-age population, reducing the dependency ratio of the elderly. Registered residence index will over-evaluate the ageing of the urban population and reduce that of the rural population. In the context of substantial migration, the nominal family structure will overrate the old-age supporting function of family, reducing the burden on the government. Healthy life expectancy will magnify the achievement of healthy ageing, reducing the crisis of unhealthy ageing. The traditional age standard will overestimate the burden of providing care for the elderly, reducing the role of the elderly themselves. It is important to reflect the traditional ageing indicators and their reliability and validity, and to explore new indicators to update the ageing research.

The Evolution Routine and Transition Patterns of Population Age Structure: International Comparations and Chinese Characteristics

Ding Jinhong, Zhang Weijia, Mao Renjun, Tian Yang

2023, 47(1):  23-42. 

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A three-group age structure can be designated as a point in the triangular diagram, while the routine of the points in time series traces the age structure evolution. The paper classifies the age structure evolution patterns of countries (areas) in the world and provinces in China, and discovers the general and ergodic age structure transition (AST) pattern which experiences three stages: the “bonus raising” stage (i.e., from the traditional fertile young population to fewer children-more labors population), the “debted ageing” stage (i.e., from fewer children-more labors population to fewer labors-more aged population), and the stage in between (i.e., turning stage). While developed countries are primarily in the middle of stage three, most developing countries are in the late phase of the first stage, and many least developed countries in Africa are still in the early stage one or even in the traditional position. Started in the 1950s and accelerated since the 1980s, the AST in China is now just passing the turning stage with diversifying decreasing bonuses at turning points from coast to inland provinces. According to a simulation scenario, China will approach the equilibrium position near 2100, with 15% children, 55% labor forces, and 30% older people, which is probably the common end of all countries in the future.

Family Changes in Contemporary China: Characteristics, Trends, and Prospects

Ma Guoqing

2023, 47(1):  43-57. 

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Family change is an important perspective to unveil social changes in China. Drawing upon data from population censuses, this paper examines the characteristics and trends of Chinese family change over the past several decades, particularly after China's reform and opening-up, focusing on family size, family relationship, and family strategy. Chinese household size has been declining, and the family intergenerational structure has shifted to one generation households, with family types being diversified and dominated by nuclear families. Family relationships tend to become more equal and democratic, family production function is increasingly expanded, while family support function presents different characteristics between urban and rural areas. Under the changing urban-rural divide in China and globalization, the option of family strategies has been manifested in the active adjustment and adaptation of contemporary Chinese families in response to the rapid and complex social changes. While being dominated by nuclear and stem families, Chinese traditional family patterns would become increasingly diversified in the future.

Empty-nest Elderly Households in China: Trends and Patterns

Tao Tao, Jin Guangzhao, Guo Yalong

2023, 47(1):  58-71. 

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Drawing upon data from 2000, 2010 and 2020 population censuses, this study examines trends and patterns of the empty-nest elderly households in China. The level of empty-nest elderly households has been increasing both in urban and rural areas over the last 20 years, and has increased in all China's provinces over the past decade. In 2020, empty-nest elderly population is estimated approximately to be 0.15 billion, of which 7.7 million are the oldest old living alone. The oldest old and female elderly are more likely to live alone. Nearly 70% of the living-alone elderly are widowed, and nearly 10% are still unmarried. Empty-nest elderly live mainly on family support, social security, and labor income. Their health conditions are generally good, but a small proportion are disabled. Few living-alone elderly have caregivers to provide care for them, and even for those disabled only 19.86% receive such care. Policy implications are discussed.

The Influence of Marital Satisfaction on Depressive Symptoms of Elderly Couples in China

Wang Xueyi, Peng Jing

2023, 47(1):  72-86. 

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Based on the Actor-partner Interdependence Model (APIM), this study explores the actor effects and partner effects of marital satisfaction on depressive symptoms in elderly Chinese couples, and the moderating effects of relevant variables on the actor effects. The results show that marital satisfaction of elderly couples has a significant negative impact on their own depressive symptoms. The lower the marital satisfaction, the higher the risk of depression, demonstrating the existence of the actor effects. In terms of partner effects, the marital satisfaction of elderly couples also has a significant negative impact on the depressive symptoms of their spouse's depressive symptoms. Parent-child relationship satisfaction can effectively alleviate the risk of depression caused by marital dissatisfaction. There are gender differences in the moderating effects of social interaction between marital satisfaction and depressive symptoms. When both parent-child relationship satisfaction and social interaction are included in the basic model, the moderating effects of social interaction change significantly. In addition, there are marked socio-demographic differentials in the effects of marital satisfaction on depressive symptoms.

De-standardisation Patterns and Gender Differences of Elderly’s Retirement Trajectories in Urban China：A Life Course Approach

Song Yueping, Zhang Guangying, Zhang Jingwen

2023, 47(1):  87-100. 

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In the context of population ageing and economic transformation, it is important to have a better understanding of the retirement process of urban workers to improve employment and retirement policies for the elderly. The present study proposes that the process of retirement should be seen as a continuous trajectory, and population heterogeneity and macro-socioeconomic background should be fully considered. Drawing data from the Life History Survey Questionnaire of 2014 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we apply sequence analysis and identify 5 typical retirement trajectories of male elderly (retiring at age 60, retiring at age 55, early retirement, informal employment and long-time unemployment) and 4 typical retirement trajectories of female elderly (retiring before age 50, retiring at age 55, long-time unemployment and informal employment). By comparing the differences in the discrepancy of the retirement trajectories between generations, we find that the labour exit trajectories of older people show a significant trend of de-standardisation during the economic transition period of China. Notably, the pattern of de-standardisation differs between genders, with women showing a higher degree of de-standardisation, while men showing more rapidly increases of de-standardisation over generations.

Can Platform Employment in the Digital Economy Improve Individual Fertility Intentions?

Ding Shouhai, Xia Zhangxu, Ouyang Yuxin

2023, 47(1):  101-114. 

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The dilemma between work and family is an important factor affecting the willingness of individuals to have children. This paper empirically studies the impact of platform employment on individual fertility intentions and its mechanism by using micro-survey data from July to October 2021. The results show that platform employment significantly improves individual fertility intentions, especially the willingness to have a first child and a second child, and this promoting effect is stronger in the female sample. Mechanism analysis shows that platform employment mainly promotes individual fertility intentions through income effect and work-family balance. Further heterogeneity research shows that platform employment has a positive effect on fertility intentions mainly in urban areas and individuals with high school or some college education. This paper provides empirical evidence for improving fertility intentions by promoting more flexible forms of employment, which has important implications for the construction of a more fertility-friendly policy system.

Individual Income Tax Reform, Family Indirect Tax Burden, and Family Childbearing Decision

Gao Yafe, iWu Ruijun

2023, 47(1):  115-128. 

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Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and the 2018 national input-output table, using the propensity score matching, difference-in-differences model, and simultaneous-equation model, this paper analyzes the impact of individual income tax reduction and family indirect tax burden on family childbearing decision from the perspective of overall family tax burden. The families which are affected by the individual income tax reform, have an increased probability of having two children by 19.4% in comparison to the unaffected families. The higher the amount of income tax reduction, the stronger the fertility promotion effect of the tax reform. In addition, the high child order is more sensitive to the tax reduction than the lower one. The family indirect tax burden has negative effect on fertility decisions. The indirect tax rate on life necessities should be reduced to enhance the ability of low-income families to bear children. During the process of tax reform, the government should pay attention to the impact of tax system adjustment on family childbearing decision.