Table of Content

29 November 2022, Volume 46 Issue 6

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The Path to Modernization of A Huge Population

Yuan Xin

2022, 46(6):  3-9. 

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Towards An Integrated System of Fertility Supporting Policies

Zhai Zhenwu, Li Shujing

2022, 46(6):  10-16. 

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The Chinese Road of Actively Responding to Population Ageing

Du Peng

2022, 46(6):  17-22. 

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Will Population Decline Lead to Economic Slowdown? A Study on China's Stock of Human Resources and Long-term Economic Growth Potential

Li Keaobo, Li Daokui, and Wu Shuyu

2022, 46(6):  23-40. 

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In recent years, a popular view among economists has been that Chinas economic growth potential will diminish significantly as Chinese population stops growing in the near future. We challenge this view and show that in fact, human resources, rather than the total population, is the key factor for long-term economic growth. The stock of human resources is the total reserves of labor hours adjusted for the quality of the population. The core metrics of the quality of population are the average health and educational attainment, respectively. The Chinese economy will still enjoy steady growth in total human resources through 2040 and then remain steady untill 2050. If China's human resources can be effectively fully utilized, then the average growth potential of the Chinese economy will be 5.9% from 2021 to 2030, 4.9% from 2031 to 2040, and 4.1% from 2041 to 2050. These findings imply that to maintain China's long-term economic prosperity, it is imperative to further strengthen lifelong learning, advance a scheme of marketbased flexible retirement, and to provide more incentives to enhance the willingness of the population to join the labor force.

From 6.57 Million to 376 Million: Remarks on Migration Transition in China

Duan Chengrong, Qiu Yuding, Huang Fan, and Xie Donghong

2022, 46(6):  41-58. 

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Based on the national census data since 1982, combined with the methods and indicators such as migration participation rate, visibility of floating population, distribution of floating population, and interprovincial migration flow, this paper comprehensively summarizes the spatial development of floating population from the perspectives of departure areas, destination areas, and flow directions. Meanwhile, the paper further discusses the evolution and recent characteristics of China's migration transition based on the gender structure, age structure, educational structure, urban and rural structure, the separation of living place and household registration, the migration of ethnic minorities, and the situation of crossborder migration. The results show that high population mobility has become the new normal of China's population characteristics. The process of migration transition varies across different regions, while some regions has already entered a new phase of migration transition. During the past 40 years, the internal structure of China's floating population has changed rapidly, and the new characteristics have started to emerge. China's migration transition has been and will continue to be a comprehensive, multi-level, and diversified process.

Spatial Patterns and Influencing Factors of Inter-Provincial Migration in China

Ma Shengchun

2022, 46(6):  59-71. 

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Using population census data and spatial analysis method, this paper examines the influencing factors of China's inter-provincial migration over 2010~2020. Inter-provincial floating population in China expands enormously, and presents an unbalanced “twoway floating” pattern. Interprovincial floating population is dominated by migration from the less developed provinces in the central and western regions to the more developed provinces in the East and adjacent regions. Factor analysis and geographically weighted regression model are used to explore factors affecting China's inter-provincial migration. While economic and social factors have significant impacts on inter-provincial migration, the impacts are greater in the central and eastern provinces than in the western provinces. The East-West gap in the impact of economic and social factors on net migration is still considerable, and the North-South gap is on the increase.

A County-Level Analysis of China's Population Change:Insights from the 7th Population Census

Liu Tao, Zhuo Yunxia

2022, 46(6):  72-87. 

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Drawing on the data from the latest three decennial censuses, this paper analyzes the spatial pattern and influencing factors of China's population change since 2000. The results show that China's population becomes more spatially unbalanced, which is reflected by the persistent difference between the east and west areas, the widening gap between the south and north areas, and the increasing disparity between the central cities and peripheral counties. Natural environment, economic, amenity factors and the administrative hierarchy play significant roles in population change. However, their effects not only evolve with time, but also vary among regions at different stages of development. In the last decade, regions with a high rate of population growth have transferred from the coastal areas to the inland areas and from the plain areas to the mountain areas. The differences of public services among regions become an important factor for population growths, especially in the east China. Central cities become more and more attractive to population, showing the increased impact of state forces, which mainly happens in the middle and west China. The results can help understand the driving factors of population change, and provide references for promoting the balanced population development.

Women's Socio-Economic Status, Childbearing Motivation, and the Second-Birth Plan in Urban China

Jin Yongai, Shen Xiaojie

2022, 46(6):  88-102. 

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Using data from 2017 survey on Chinese families' fertility decision under the new fertility policy, this study investigates how childbearing motivation impacts women's second-birth plan in urban China. Results show that higher socioeconomic status is linked to both stronger individualism-oriented and stronger childdevelopment-oriented motivations of childbearing. Meanwhile, individualism-oriented motivation is negatively while childdevelopment-oriented motivation is positively associated with the probability to have a second birth plan. Overall, women who have a higher socio-economic status would have a higher probability to have a plan for a second birth. The KHB decomposition suggests that the two types of childbearing motivation play a mediating role in the relationship between women's socioeconomic status and their plan for a second birth. And the childdevelopment-oriented motivation has a larger mediating effect. This study has important theoretical and policy implications by emphasizing the role of childbearing motivation in women's fertility decisions.

The Impact of Fertility Policy Relaxation on Women's Income in Urban China

Huang Qian, Jin Xiaofei

2022, 46(6):  103-116. 

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China officially implemented the selective two-child policy and the universal two-child policy in 2013 and 2016, respectively. Fertility policy relaxation has far-reaching impacts on women in urban China. In the labor market, income is an essential indicator of labor market performance and employment quality, and women are paid for their labor through employment. With the staggered difference-in-difference (DID) model, the impact of fertility policy relaxation on the average monthly and hourly earnings of urban women in China is assessed using data from 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 China Family Panel Studies. We find that the twochild policy leads to a significant decrease of 12.36% in women's average monthly income and 11.37% reduction in average hourly earnings; the negative influence on income of women below 25 or those with no children is most pronounced, which suggests that the relaxation of fertility policy has exacerbated gender discrimination in the labor market, especially statistical discrimination.

City Brand and Migrant Settlement Intentions：Evidence from “National Civilized City”

Niu Geng, He Yuke, Zhao Guochang

2022, 46(6):  117-130. 

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In modern societyies, the signals released by brands carry important meaning. Drawing on 2012-2016 China Migrants Dynamic Survey data and taking “National Civilized City” as a quasiexperiment, this paper explores the impact of the promotion of city brand value on migrants' settlement intentions within a difference-in-differences framework. The results show that the promotion of city brand value can significantly improve migrants' settlement intentions, and this effect is stronger for migrants in younger generation, with shorter migration experience, higher income and educational level, and without home ownership in host cities. Moreover, the brand of “National Civilized City” makes cities with higher administrative level, higher household registration threshold, higher per capita income, and more adequate educational and medical resources more attractive. This study emphasizes the key role of city brand value in promoting a new type of people-centered urbanization and sheds light on how to promote newtype city construction and urban social integration.