关键词:  , 低生育率陷阱, 低生育率自我强化机制, 进度效应

Abstract:  Total fertility rate in most European countries has experienced a shape decline since 1980s,with many having very low fertility rate.Hypotheses have been offered to explain why fertility keep declining when they are already very low in many countries.The low fertility trap which has been advanced by Lutz and his collaborators is one of the most popular theories.According to Lutz and his co-workers’ opinion,once the TFRs have declined to level below 1.5,it is by no means easy to rise up to that level because of the self-reinforcing mechanisms of the very low fertility rate.In this paper,the author introduces the low fertility trap hypothesis and the self-reinforcing mechanisms,the core concept of Lutz’s theory.After analyzing the three parts of the low fertility self-reinforcing mechanism(population dynamics,sociological reasoning and economic rationale)and combining the fact that fertility have raised in some very low fertility countries in recent years,the author argue that it is too early to say that low fertility trap is true.

Keywords: Low Fertility Trap, Low Fertility Self-reinforcing Mechanism, Tempo Effect