关键词: 生育意愿, 双峰偏好, Probit模型

Abstract: Traditionally studies on fertility desire have a hypothesis that people have only one optimal fertility preference,ignoring the existence of double-peak fertility preference that could lead to bias on estimation and projection of fertility preference.This paper theoretically demonstrates the occurrence of double-peak preference and the reasons for bias in fertility prefernece survey under the assumption of a single peak preference.A Probit model is uesed to analyze a survey results,testing the existence of double-peak fertility preference.Combining theory and statistical results,this paper gives a new analysis of the issues,such as "DINK" family,gender differences in fertility preference,and differences of fertility preference between only and non-only children.Finally this paper proposes a new explanation of the process of fertility decline in the double-peak preference perspective.

Keywords: Fertility Preference, Double-peak Preference, Probit model