人口研究 ›› 2011, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 14-28.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国人口分布合理性研究——基于发展方式角度

刘洁1王宇成2苏杨3   

  1. 1 北京联合大学商务学院,北京 100025;2  清华大学经济学研究所,北京 100084;3 国务院发展研究中心社会发展部,北京 100010
  • 出版日期:2011-01-29 发布日期:2012-11-18
  • 通讯作者: suyang1@263.net
  • 作者简介:1 北京联合大学商务学院讲师; 2 清华大学经济学研究所研究生; 3 国务院发展研究中心社会发展部研究员

On Distribution Rationality of China’s Population:A Development Mode Perspective

Liu Jie1, Wang Yucheng2, Su Yang3   

  1. 1  Business College of Beijing Union University, Beijing 100025;  2 Institute of Economics of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 ; 3 Professor,Development Research Center of the State Council, Beijing 100010
  • Online:2011-01-29 Published:2012-11-18
  • Contact: suyang1@263.net
  • About author:1 Lecturer,Business College of Beijing Union University; 2 Master Student,Institute of Economics of Tsinghua University; 3 Professor,Development Research Center of the State Council

摘要: 主体功能区划的人口政策目标是实现人口的合理分布及有序流动。在阐释这个目标的基础上,文章认为经济—人口分布协调是最重要的"理",通过构建区域经济规模—人口规模协调度度量模型验证了这是在发达国家已经普遍存在的"理",而我国经济与人口的分布处于较不合理状态。以缪尔达尔循环因果积累理论为基础,分析了较不合理的制度成因是我国不顾"以人为本"的"抄近路"发展方式,其造成经济系统收益和人口系统福利相互转化的渠道效率低下,并且在经济聚集与人口聚集之间存在制度障碍。据此,对应提出了在财税体制、政绩评价体系和人口相关管理制度等方面的制度调整对策。

关键词: 人口分布, 经济-人口分布协调, 主体功能区划, 制度障碍

Abstract: The major objective of population policy for the main functional region division is to achieve the appropriate distribution of population and orderly population flow.Coordinated economy-population distribution is the most important "rationale" based on the interpretation of this objective.Results from models measuring the coordination of regional economy and population show that the "rationale" is common in developed countries and the economy-population distribution in China is irrational.Analyzing with the circulatory accumulation theory of Myrdal,it is concluded that the institutional determinant for the irrational population distribution in China is the "cutting corners" development mode without being "people centered",resulting in inefficiency of the interconverting channel of economic benefit and population welfare,and there are institutional barriers between economic development and population agglomeration.Institutional adjustment policies on finance and tax system,population management system and evaluation system of political achievement are discussed in the paper.

Keywords: Population Distribution, Coordinated Economy-Population Distribution, Main Functional Region Division, Institutional Barriers