关键词: 人口, 碳排放, 非线性, 回归分析, 弹性系数

Abstract: Both theoretical and empirical analyses show that the relationship between population development and carbon emissions is dynamic,and the population elasticity of carbon emissions is a nonlinear function of population size,age structure,household size,urbanization,sex structure,and economic development.This paper argues that the model based on the hypothesis that the relationship between population and carbon emissions is nonlinear results in a better simulation to the historical data than does the traditional model,and also a better representation of the effects of population development and economic growth on carbon emissions.The effects of population development on carbon emissions are quite different in developed and developing countries.Therefore,coping strategies need to be adopted according to the actual situation of population development in order to mitigate climate change.

Keywords: Population, Carbon Emissions, Nonlinear Relationship, Regression Analysis, Elasticity Coefficient