关键词: 人口分布变动, 面板数据, 固定效应, 随机效应

Abstract: Based on economic,social and environmental panel data of eight counties in Bijie Prefecture between 1987 to 2007,this article explored the impact of resource environment,economic level and social development on changes of population distribution.The findings are multifaceted.First,the population quantity and density in these eight counties have increased steadily with a similar growth pattern and trend,although the pace of growth varies,suggesting regional disparities.Second,the effect of natural environment on population redistribution has been weakened over time to a lesser extent,which indicates that natural factors have an ingrained impact on the changes of population distribution.Third,the effect of economic and social development,particularly GDP per capita and the quality of medical care,on the changes of population density has been strengthened.Finally,each county in Bijie Prefecture exhibits obviously distinctive characteristics in terms of the dynamic trend of population density,although they share same impact of resources environment,the social and economic development.

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