人口研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 34-44.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

曲折、艰难、辉煌的中国生育转变

解振明   

  1. 中国人口学会,中国人口与发展研究中心,北京 100081
  • 出版日期:2012-01-29 发布日期:2012-11-18
  • 通讯作者: zmxie@cpdrc.org.cn
  • 作者简介:中国人口学会秘书长、中国人口与发展研究中心研究员

Fertility Transition in China: A Zigzag and Splendid Course

Xie Zhenming   

  1. China Population Association and senior researcher of China Population and Development Research Center, Beijing 100081
  • Online:2012-01-29 Published:2012-11-18
  • About author:Secretary General, China Population Association and senior researcher of China Population and Development Research Center

摘要: 从1979~2009年30年人口变动的历程来看,中国人口转变是成功的,其结果是辉煌的,但其转变的历程,尤其是生育转变的历程是曲折和艰难的,历史留给人们的经验和教训是深刻的。本文将近30年来的生育转变历程为四个阶段,从而突显了不同阶段生育水平的变化,以及生育水平与社会经济变革、生育行为以及生育政策博弈的结果。1979~1984年生育水平反弹波动,反映出严格的生育政策遇到强大阻力,结果是欲速而不达。1985~1991年生育高峰如期而至,显示了人口内在规律的强大威力,从而最大限度地调动了人口控制的力量。1992~1999生育率再次下降,并穿透替代水平生育率,宣告人口转变基本完成。2000~2009低生育水平持续稳定,人口结构性问题逐步显现,统筹解决人口问题势在必行。

关键词: 人口转变, 生育转变, 计划生育

Abstract: Examining China’s population changes in the past three decades demonstrates that China’s demographic transition has been successfully completed with a splendid and zigzag path.There are profound historical experiences and lessons.This paper reviews China’s fertility transition which is divided into four periods and argues that fertility changes are a result of the interactions between socio-economic development,fertility behaviors and fertility policies.Substantial resistance to the "one-child policy" during 1979 to 1984 resulted in rebounding and fluctuating fertility.The baby boom occurred in the period 1985 to 1991 was a manifestation of the inherent laws of demographic dynamics,and subsequently forceful birth control was again mobilized.The period from 1992 to 1999 witnessed large declines in fertility which penetrates the replacement zone,showing that China was completing the fertility transition.China’s stabilizing low fertility and emerging population structural issues since 2000 call for comprehensive ways in addressing the population problems.

Keywords: Demographic Transition, Fertility Transition, Family Planning