人口研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 3-16.

• 论文 •    下一篇

“六普”报告的婴儿死亡率误差和实际水平的估计

黄荣清1曾宪新2   

  1. 1 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京 100070;2 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京 100070
  • 出版日期:2013-03-29 发布日期:2013-05-26
  • 通讯作者: zengxx@cueb.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:1 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院教授;2 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院副教授

Infant Mortality Reported in the 2010 Census: Bias and Adjustment

Huang Rongqing1, Zeng Xianxin2   

  1. 1 Labor Economics School,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070;2 Labor Economics School,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070
  • Online:2013-03-29 Published:2013-05-26
  • Contact: zengxx@cueb.edu.cn
  • About author:1 Professor,Labor Economics School,Capital University of Economics and Business;2 Associated Professor,Labor Economics School,Capital University of Economics and Business

摘要: 婴儿死亡率在人口死亡研究中有着特殊的位置。婴儿死亡是死亡力随年龄变化过程的起点,而且对以后的死亡力变化有很大的影响。过去几次人口普查数据分析表明,由于婴儿死亡漏报,导致婴儿死亡率与实际有较大出入。文章从174个国家数据所反映出的婴儿死亡与经济发展的关系、人口普查数据与卫生部检测地区婴儿死亡的对比、各省婴儿死亡数据的对比几个方面的分析表明,第六次人口普查的婴儿死亡存在明显的"漏报"。从死亡报告误差发生可能性相对较小的幼儿死亡着手,在对各省的幼儿死亡率进行的修正基础上,根据婴儿死亡与幼儿死亡之间的稳定关系对各省的婴儿死亡数据进行修正,进而得出修正后的全国婴儿死亡率为17.27‰,普查的婴儿死亡漏报水平为78%。

关键词: 婴儿死亡率, 漏报, 人口普查

Abstract: Infant  mortality  has  an  important  place  in  mortality  research ,which  is  the  beginning  of  the mortality  force changes by age and which also affects later - life mortality change. Analysis of the past censu- ses demonstrates that a large gap exists between the census - reported infant mortality rate and the actual rate as a result of underreporting. By analyzing the relation between infant mortality and economic development of 174  countries of the world,comparing census data with health statistics ,and examining provincial variations in infant mortality ,it is found  that  there  is  significant  underreporting  in  infant  mortality  in  the 6th  census. Since  errors in the reported mortality of the population aged 1 - 4 are relatively small ,we first adjust it by areas ,then adjust infant mortality according to the steady relation between infant mortality and mortality of the population aged 1 - 4. The  adjusted  national  infant  mortality  rate  stood  at 17. 27‰  in 2000 ,implying  that underreporting rate of the infant mortality in the 6th census is about 78% .

Keywords: Infant Mortality, Underreporting, Population Census