关键词: 海归回流, 知识溢出, 技术进步, 门限面板

Abstract: This paper examines technology spillover effect of overseas returnees according to a threshold panel model of overseas returnees． By using China＇s 1995 － 2011 provincial panel data，the paper explores empirically the relationship between the number of returnees and knowledge spillovers． The results show that returnees as new channels of international knowledge transfer have a significant effect on knowledge spillovers which can promote technological progress; once the number of returnees reached above a certain threshold value，its knowledge spillover effects get jumped and accelerated． The stronger the absorptive capacity of local human capital，the better the acception of the returnees knowledge spillovers． At the same time，the absorptive capacity of local human capital has single threshold effect to returnees knowledge spillovers． The provincial returnees knowledge spillovers present a " non － equilibrium" pattern． Because of geographical locations and other factors in China s regions，the technology spillover effect of returnees present a decreasing trend from the eastern，central and western regions．

Keywords: Returnees Reflux, Knowledge Spillovers, Technological Progress, Threshold Panel