关键词: 低生育率, 极低生育率, 低生育率陷阱, 生育政策

Abstract: The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis proposes that there are three self-reinforcing mechanisms—demographic，sociological and economic，working towards a downward spiral in future fertility. Once TFR drops below 1. 5，it will be difficult to recover. The fertility recovery emerging in many countries across the world has challenged the low-fertility trap theory and also the justification of the theory itself. So low-fertility trap is more likely a pattern summarized from a short-time phenomenon than a generalized social law. As with China，the current fertility level is above 1. 5 births per woman，and China is not in the“Low-fertility trap”. Moreover most recent surveys suggest that current fertility intention in China is above 1. 8 births per woman and more than 60 percent of people would have a second child if there is an adjustment of fertility policy. In addition，birth postponement is still playing an import role in reducing TFR in China. Thus，with the high fertility intention，adjustment of family planning policy and decreasing tempo effect，TFR in China will experience upturn but not further decline in the near future.It is lack of evidence to conclude that China has already been or is going to be trapped in low fertility.

Keywords: Low Fertility, Lowest-low Fertility, Low Fertility Trap, Fertility Policy