人口研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 71-82.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国人口老龄化的空间非均衡及分布动态演进: 1989~2011

刘华军1何礼伟2杨骞3   

  1. 1 山东财经大学经济学院,山东济南: 250014  2 山东财经大学经济学院,山东济南: 250014 3 山东财经大学公共管理学院,山东济南: 250014
  • 出版日期:2014-03-29 发布日期:2014-06-30
  • 通讯作者: huajun99382@163.com
  • 作者简介:1 山东财经大学经济学院教授;2 山东财经大学经济学院研究生;3 山东财经大学公共管理学院副教授
  • 基金资助:

    国家社科基金项目( 批准号: 12CJL066; 13CJL069) 、全国统计科研计划项目( 批准号: 2012LY120) 、山东省自然科学基金项目( 批准号: ZR2012GQ009; ZR2013GM015)

Spatial Inequality and Distributional Dynamics of Population Ageing in China,1989-2011

Liu Huajun1, He Liwei2, Yang Qian3   

  1. 1 School of Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Shandong Jinan 250014
  • Online:2014-03-29 Published:2014-06-30
  • Contact: huajun99382@163.com
  • About author:1 Professor, School of Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics; 2 Graduate Student,School of Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics; 3 Assistant Professor, School of Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics.

摘要: 基于1989~2011 年30 个省份的数据,以老年人口比重和老少比两种指标,采用Dagum基尼系数和Kernel 密度估计方法,对中国人口老龄化的空间非均衡及分布动态演进进行实证研究,结果表明: 第一,利用GIS 绘制的老年人口比重和老少比的分布图直观地展示出中国人口老龄化空间分布存在显著的空间非均衡特征,具体表现为中、西部地区老龄化程度低而东部地区老龄化程度高的梯度分布态势。第二,基尼系数测算及其分解结果表明,中国人口老龄化空间分布的总体差距呈波动趋势,地区间差距是总体差距的主要来源,超变密度对我国老龄人口分布总体差距的影响也不断增强; 第三,Kernel 密度估计显示,中国人口老龄化程度不断加深,地区差距亦呈现持续扩大趋势,并出现一定的两极分化现象。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 空间非均衡, 分布动态, 基尼系数, Kernel 密度估计

Abstract: Using China's provincial data from 1989 to 2011 and population aging indexes represented by elderly population shares and elderly-young ratios,this article examines spatial inequality and distributional dynamics of China's population aging with Dagum's Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation
method.GIS mapping visually demonstrates that China's population aging is characterized by significant spatial inequality.Gini coefficient and its decomposition suggest that the spatial distribution of population aging in China exhibits certain fluctuation.The disparity among regions is the major source
of overall inequality and the impact of intensity of trans-variation also grows steadily.Kernel density estimation indicates that the degree of population aging in China continues to be deepening and regional inequality is widening.

Keywords: Population Aging, Spatial Inequality, Distributional Dynamics, Gini Coefficient, Kernel Density Estimation