人口研究 ›› 2014, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 40-56.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国省域人口迁移与经济增长耦合关系的演进

逯进1,郭志仪2   

  1. 1 青岛大学经济学院; 2 兰州大学经济学院
  • 出版日期:2014-11-29 发布日期:2015-01-26
  • 作者简介:1 青岛大学经济学院教授; 2 兰州大学经济学院教授

The Evolution of Coupling Relationship between Population Migration and Economic Growth in China

Lu Jin1, Guo Zhiyi2   

  1. 1 Economics School,Qingdao University; 2 Economics School,Lanzhou University
  • Online:2014-11-29 Published:2015-01-26
  • About author:1 Professor,Economics School,Qingdao University; 2 Professor,Economics School,Lanzhou University

摘要: 文章利用层次分析法讨论了我国省域人口迁移和经济增长的变动规律,在此基础上,从系统耦合观视角实证检验了人口迁移与经济增长两系统之间的协调关系之特征,并对二者耦合程度的演化规律做出了理论解析。结果发现,我国各省区人口迁移与经济增长都存在稳定的正向协调演进机制,但总体看二者的耦合度并不高,且区域间存在较大差异,从空间上表现出由东至西依次递减态势; 同时,还表现出人口迁移与经济增长之间存在一定的适宜性特征。此外,各区域都存在耦合衰退趋势,这意味着,随着我国经济发展方式转型的不断深入,经济增长与人口迁移将出现逆向变动趋势,未来由高素质人力资本迁移带动的经济增长特征将愈发明显。

关键词: 省域人口迁移, 经济增长, 耦合

Abstract: By employing the analytic hierarchy process method,this paper analyzes changing pattern of population migration and economic growth across China’s provinces,and further assesses their coordination characteristics in a coupling perspective. Results show that,at the country,region and province levels,stable coupling coordination mechanisms exist between population migration and economic growth,but the coupling levels are not high,which are decreasing from East to West. Meanwhile,there appears to be some appropriateness between migration and economic growth. However coupling levels are declining at all regions,which means that,with the advancing transformation of development pattern,economic growth will be increasingly driven by migration of high - quality human capital labour.

Keywords: Inter-privincial Migration, Economic Growth, Coupling