关键词: 大众传媒, 互联网普及, 契约理论, 离婚率

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of the mass media on the divorce rate in China based on contract theory. We incorporate the widely identified factors influencing the stability of marriage into a single model and specify four main mechanisms through which the mass media may take into effect; that is, through widening the difference between expected utility and real utility of marriage, through changing the allocation of leisure time of the couple and especially through reducing the input of marriage specific capital, through reducing the (expected) divorce cost, and through weakening the disciplinary function of custom and social norms. Based on the panel data in 1998-2011 from 31 provinces in the mainland of China, the econometric regressions confirm the significantly positive effect of the mass media on the divorce rate in recent China. The results are robust after controlling for factors including the migration rate and education.

Keywords: Mass Media, the Internet Penetration, Contract Theory, Divorce