关键词: 婴儿死亡漏报, 平均预期寿命, 婴儿死亡漏报可能性指数, 聚类分析, 空间自相关

Abstract: The under-reporting of infant death undermines the accuracy of the infant mortality rate and life expectancy. Based on China’s 2010 national population census data, this paper analyzes the impact of infant death under-reporting on life expectancy from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Cluster analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis have been conducted to explore the regional disparities of both the under-reporting rate of infant death and its influence on life expectancy. The results show that the lower the overall mortality rate is, the more the change of life expectancy caused by the change of infant mortality. The extent of the impact on life expectancy of infant mortality depends mostly on its under-reporting level, the higher the level, the larger the impact. There are significant regional disparities of the impact of infant death under-reporting on life expectancy. The life expectancy is more sensitive to the fluctuation of infant death under-reporting in western and southwestern China. Moreover, there is no global bivariate spatial correlation between mortality level and the likelihood index of infant death under-reporting, but there are some significant local agglomerations and the spatial patterns are similar by gender.

Keywords: Infant Death Under-reporting, Life Expectancy, Likelihood Index of Infant Death Under-reporting, Cluster Analysis, Spatial Autocorrelation