关键词: 家庭转变, 动态过程, 环境负载,  , 家庭规模效应, 分段回归

Abstract:

The changes of household structure have important impact on the resources and environment under the effect of household size．This article constructs and testes the empirical model of China’ s household transition．China’ s household transition has apparent regional characteristics．The breakpoints of household transition in developed regions are 1975 and 2003，and their household transition is now being in the final phase．However，the first breakpoint of household transition in developing regions is 1981，and the second breakpoint has not yet occurred．This analysis shows that the environmental effect of the household size changes is greater than the effect of population transition，an effect just second to consumption level．It is there- fore necessary and reasonable to analyze the relationship between population and environment with a household structure transition perspective，and pay more attention to the negative impacts of household transition．The developing regions could learn the experiences from the developed regions in order to avoid the similar environmental crisis．

Keywords:  Household Transition, Dynamics, Environmental Load, Economics of Household Size, Seg- mented Regression