关键词: 台湾人口, 理论男婴富余比, 婚配性别比, 婚姻挤压

Abstract: This study examine strends in the marriage squeeze in Taiwan using the theoretical redundant ratio of male births and sex ratio at marriage( MR) with Taiwan’s population data from 1970 to 2014．MR in Taiwan kept increasing and the theoretical redundant ratio of male births had a modest rise from 1970 to 2014，implying that Taiwan’s male marriage squeeze would be also on the rise in the future．Comparative analysis shows that the theoretical redundant ratio of male births in Taiwan was lower，but the MR was higher than those in the mainland from 1987 to 2013．Our analysis suggests that marriage match is a result of both the individual subjective preferences and the objective condition of the marriage market structure．Macro structure of sex and age are the predisposing factors affecting marriage squeeze，while the fundamental factors affecting marriage squeeze are family background，sociocultural context，and economic and job conditions．

Keywords:  Taiwan’s Population, Theoretical Redundant Ratio of Male Births, Sex Ratio at Marriage, Marriage Squeeze