人口研究 ›› 2016, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 58-70.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

 人口老龄化对劳动力参与率的影响

周助平1刘海斌2   

  1. 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心。北京,100872
  • 出版日期:2016-05-29 发布日期:2017-01-12
  • 作者简介:周祝平,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心副教授; 刘海斌,中国人民大学社会与人口学院硕士。
  • 基金资助:

     国家社会科学基金项目(批准号:14BRK032)的资助

A Study of the Influence of Population Ageing on Labor Force Participation Rate

Zhou Zhuping1,Liu Haibin2   

  1. Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China
  • Online:2016-05-29 Published:2017-01-12
  • About author:Zhou Zhuping is Associate Professor,Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China.Liu Haibin is Master Student,School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China.

摘要:  劳动力参与率的高低对劳动供给和经济增长有重要影响。随着老龄社会的到来,老龄化对劳动力参与率的影响越来越重要。人口老龄化在解释劳动力参与率差异方面起到重要作用。通过对中国、巴西、法国、印度、日本和美国的2013年劳动力参与率比较,利用年龄标准化方法,发现在年龄别劳动力参与率一定的情况下,年轻型人口明显比老年型人口的劳动力参与率更高。利用差异分解的方法,发现中国和日本2013年的劳动力参与率相差12.1个百分点,其中79.0%可以归因于年龄结构的差异。更进一步,通过国内面板模型和国际面板模型的实证分析,证明了人口老龄化与劳动力参与率存在显著的负相关关系。实证结果还表明,收入水平与劳动力参与率之间存在着倒U型曲线关系。 

关键词: 人口老龄化, 年龄标准化, 劳动力参与率

Abstract:  Labor force participation level is important for labor supply and economic growth.Since changing age structure influences the overall labor force participation rate ( LFPR ) ,population ageing plays an important role in explaining differences in LFPR.By comparing age-standardized LFPR among China,Brazil,France,India,Japan and The U. S.,it is found that LFPR level of a young population is considerably higher than that of an older population under the same age-specific LFPR.Using the decomposition method of differences between rates,it is found that in 2013,the LFPR difference between China and Japan is at 12. 1 percentage points,of which 79. 0% is contributed by their age structure difference.Further empirical analysis through both national and international panel data models also indicate that LFPR is significantly negative related to population ageing.

Keywords:  Population Ageing, Age Standardization, Labor Force Participation Rate