人口研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (1): 102-112.

• 人口与社会 • 上一篇    

延迟退休年龄对中国人力资本的影响

杨李唯君1，冯秋石2，王正联3，曾毅4   

  1. 杨李唯君1，新加坡国立大学社会学系和亚洲研究所讲座，家庭与人口研究中心；冯秋石2，新加坡国立大学社会学系；王正联3，中国人口与发展研究中心, 杜克大学人口与健康研究中心；曾毅4，北京大学国家发展研究院，北京大学瑞意高等研究所，杜克大学医学院老龄与人类发展研究中心。
  • 出版日期:2019-01-29 发布日期:2019-03-07
  • 作者简介:杨李唯君，新加坡国立大学社会学系和亚洲研究所讲座教授，家庭与人口研究中心主任；冯秋石，新加坡国立大学社会学系副教授；王正联，中国人口与发展研究中心特聘研究员, 杜克大学人口与健康研究中心资深研究科学家；曾毅，北京大学国家发展研究院教授，北京大学瑞意高等研究所首席科学家，杜克大学医学院老龄与人类发展研究中心教授。
  • 基金资助:
    本研究是NUSGlobal Asia Institute Research Grant (CARC2012001, PI: WeiJun Jean Yeung)的资助项目。

Adjustment on Retirement Age and Changes of Human Capital in China, 2015 to 2050

Yeung WeiJun Jean1，Feng Qiushi2，Wang Zhenglian3，Zeng Yi 4   

  1. Yeung WeiJun Jean1  Department of Sociology and Asian Research Institute, Director of Centre for Family and Population Research (CFPR), National University of Singapore; Feng Qiushi2, Department of Sociology, Centre for Family and Population Research (CFPR), National University of Singapore; Wang Zhenglian3 , China Population and Development Research Center, Center for Population Health and Aging, Duke University; Zeng Yi 4, Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development, Duke University, Professor, Raissun Institute for Advanced Studies, Peking University.
  • Online:2019-01-29 Published:2019-03-07
  • About author:Yeung WeiJun Jean is Provost's Chair Professor, Department of Sociology and Asian Research Institute, Director of Centre for Family and Population Research (CFPR), National University of Singapore; Feng Qiushi is Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, Centre for Family and Population Research (CFPR), National University of Singapore; Wang Zhenglian is Research Fellow, China Population and Development Research Center, Senior Research Scientist, Center for Population Health and Aging, Duke University; Zeng Yi is Professor, Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development, Duke University, Professor, Raissun Institute for Advanced Studies, Peking University.

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摘要： 退休年龄是否应该延迟以及如何延迟是目前社会普遍关注的政策议题。文章考察9种不同退休年龄延迟方案下中国劳动力市场从2015~2050年的变化，关注人力资本的规模和质量，并特别关注 “高人力资本劳动力”（有高中及以上学历并且身体健康的劳动年龄人口），系统研究延迟退休年龄将如何影响中国人力资本。预测结果显示，相比保持目前退休年龄不变的基准方案，不同退休年龄延迟方案在人力资本方面有着不同效果，所增加的劳动力其范围大约在年均2800万人至9200万人之间。另外，由于20世纪90年代末以来的高等教育扩张，延迟退休年龄所增加劳动力的教育水平将普遍较高，这一点在女性群体中表现得更为显著。

关键词: 退休年龄, 人力资本, 劳动力, 人口预测

Abstract: As China continues to age rapidly, whether the country should adjust the official retirement age, and if so, when and how, are currently major policy concerns. We examine the impact of postponing the retirement age on the human capital of China in the next four decades. Two critical aspects of human capital-health and education-are incorporated to account for the quality of the work force. Our projections reveal the impact of nine scenarios on the Chinese labor force in the next few decades, highlighting the changes in “the high human capital workforce”-those with good health and education. We show substantial impact with added work force ranging from 28 to 92 million per year depending on which scenarios are implemented. Furthermore, the retained workers are increasingly better educated. The gain in female workers is particularly significant, reaping the benefits of the education expansion since the 1990s.

Keywords: Retirement Age, Human Capital, Labour Force, Population Projection

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