人口老龄化对居民家庭投资风险偏好的影响

人口研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (1): 78-90.

人口老龄化对居民家庭投资风险偏好的影响

齐明珠¹，张成功²

齐明珠¹，首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院人口经济研究所；张成功²，首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院

出版日期:2019-01-29 发布日期:2019-03-07
作者简介:齐明珠，首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院人口经济研究所，教授；张成功，首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院硕士研究生
基金资助:
本文受首都经济贸易大学重大科研项目与成果培育计划“人口变动对资产价格的长期影响及预警机制研究”资助。

The Influence of Population Ageing on Investment Risk Preference：An Old-Age Security Perspective

Qi Mingzhu¹，Zhang Chenggong²

Qi Mingzhu¹, Population and Economic Research Center, School of Labor Economics of Capital University of Economics and Business; Zhang Chenggong²，School of Labor Economics of Capital University of Economics and Business

Online:2019-01-29 Published:2019-03-07
About author:Qi Mingzhu is Professor, Population and Economic Research Center, School of Labor Economics of Capital University of Economics and Business; Zhang Chenggong is Master Candidate, School of Labor Economics of Capital University of Economics and Business.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 人口老龄化下退休者对退休金和子女的依赖度下降，工作期间的资产积累和资产回报对未来养老安全的重要性提升。不同风险的投资产品具有不同的回报率，居民投资风险偏好将直接决定居民投资行为偏好和投资产品组合需求，进而影响资产回报。文章利用2011年中国家庭金融资产调查数据，采用有序Logistic回归模型实证分析了年龄对居民风险偏好的影响。研究结果表明，处于不同生命周期的人群投资风险偏好不同。年龄与居民风险偏好呈现单调关系，随着居民年龄的增长其风险偏好程度逐渐下降。人口老龄化将降低居民总体投资风险偏好度，从而影响未来投资市场的供给和需求特征，最终降低资本市场的回报率。最后，文章对我国的养老安全提出了政策建议。

关键词: 年龄变动, 投资风险偏好, 养老安全

Abstract: With population aging, there is a decline of retirees' dependence on pension and their children, while the accumulation of assets and the return of assets during the work period become more important for their future pension security. Investment products at different risks have various capital return rates. Residents' investment risk preference will directly decide residents’ investment behavior preferences and portfolio demand, and therefore affect the returns of asset in the future. Using the survey data of 2011 Chinese Household Finance Survey, this paper empirically analyses the influence of age on the risk preference of residents by establishing a series of ordered logistic regression models. The results show that the investment risk preference during different life cycles is different, and the risk preference of the residents gradually decreases with age. Population ageing will reduce the overall investment risk preference and develop a low return rate through adjusting the supply and demand of the future investment market. Finally, this paper discusses policy implications.

Keywords: Population Ageing, Investment Risk Preference, The Aged-supporting Security

齐明珠，张成功. 人口老龄化对居民家庭投资风险偏好的影响[J]. 人口研究, 2019, 43(1): 78-90.

Qi Mingzhu，Zhang Chenggong. The Influence of Population Ageing on Investment Risk Preference：An Old-Age Security Perspective[J]. Population Research, 2019, 43(1): 78-90.