关键词: 老龄化, 同原点比较模型, 医疗卫生支出, 储蓄, 劳动参与率

Abstract:

Through constructing identical origin point model, this article compares the ageing process of 9 countries since their exposure to the risk of being an ageing society and examines its social and economic impact among these countries. The study finds that whether fast or slow, population ageing keeps intensifying among selected countries. Over the past decade, Chinas ageing rate has been faster than that of Japan. The ageing of labor force in China, Japan, and Korea is predicted to reach a peak as high as 45% by 2035 and to remain this level for the rest of this century. After controlling the economic growth level, it turns out that population ageing does not necessarily increase health expenditures. Instead, the proportion of the elderly population aged 80 and above shows a significant positive correlation with the health expenditures in most countries. Impact of population ageing on the saving per capita shows no consistent patterns. In most countries, the male labor participation rate drops as the ageing level ascends. However, some countries may also witness a climb in female labor participation rate due to the effect of population ageing.

Keywords: Ageing, Identical Origin Point Model, Medical Expenditure, Savings, Labor Participation Rate