关键词: 劳动生产率, 人口老龄化, 老年抚养比, 动态面板数据模型

Abstract: Labor productivity is a symbolic indicator that determines the potential growth of the regional economy. Under the situation of population ageing, understanding the relationship between the population ageing and labor productivity is very important for understanding the source of economic growth and maintaining sustainable development. We use dynamic panel data models to study the effects of population ageing on labor productivity. It is found that the impact of population ageing on labor productivity varies significantly in different periods. In the short term, the current level of population ageing and the one-period lag level of population ageing have significant different effects on labor productivity. However, the long-term effect of the elderly dependency ratio on labor productivity has been identified to be not significant. At the same time, the relationship between population ageing and labor productivity shows an “Inverted U” shape. The point of elderly dependency ratio for the maximum labor productivity is between 8.65% and 8.79%. The results are quite stable under other indicators of population ageing. 

Keywords: Labor Productivity, Population Ageing, Elderly Dependency Ratio, Dynamic Panel Data Model