低生育率时代儿童照顾政策的需求层次与结构

人口研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 19-35.

低生育率时代儿童照顾政策的需求层次与结构

杨雪燕¹,高琛卓²,井文³

杨雪燕¹，西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院；高琛卓²、井文³，西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院。

出版日期:2021-01-29 发布日期:2021-02-05
作者简介:杨雪燕，西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院教授；高琛卓、井文，西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院博士研究生。
基金资助:
本研究得到国家社会科学基金重点项目“普惠性婴幼儿托育服务建设研究”（20AZD069）和西安交通大学2018年度基本科研业务费的资助。

Hierarchy and Structure of Policy Needs for Childcare in the Era of Low-Fertility:An Empirical Analysis Based on Survey Data from Xi'an City

Yang Xueyan¹,Gao Chenzhuo²,Jing Wen³

Yang Xueyan¹, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University; Gao Chenzhuo² and Jing Wen³, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University.

Online:2021-01-29 Published:2021-02-05
About author:Yang Xueyan is Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University; Gao Chenzhuo and Jing Wen are PhD Candidates, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于西安市育龄人群调查，分析了儿童照顾政策需求层次与结构。研究发现,托育服务与二孩税收减免分别处于育龄人群政策需求的第一与第二层次，对于不同子女数的育龄人群而言，养育指导、延长产假、延长陪产假与二孩现金补贴所处政策需求层次存在差异；半数以上育龄人群对多项政策有较高需求，其需求结构可分为政策高需求组、服务政策需求组、经济-时间政策需求组、经济-服务政策需求组、时间-服务政策需求组及政策低需求组6种类型；其需求结构受到个体特征（如受教育年限、再生育意愿、养育责任认知）与家庭特征（如家庭年收入、夫妻就业状态、子女数量、父母与祖辈照顾程度）显著影响。建议以需求为导向，明确儿童照顾领域政策供给重点。

关键词: 儿童照顾政策, 需求层次, 需求结构, Kano模型, 潜在类别模型

Abstract: Based on the survey data collected from people at childbearing age in Xi'an city, this research analyzes the hierarchy and structure of policy needs for childcare. Results show that childcare services and tax deduction for people having a second child are at the first and second levels of policy needs, respectively. For people with different numbers of children, the levels of policy needs for child-rearing guidance, cash benefits for people having a second child, extended paternity leave and extended maternity leave also differ. More than half of the respondents have high demands for various childcare policy supports. There are six types of policy needs for child care: high demand for all policies, demand for childcare services, demand for financial aids and parental leave, demand for financial aids and childcare services, demand for parental leave and childcare services, and low demand for all policies. Policy needs for childcare are affected by individual attributes and family characteristics. Policy makers should design childcare policies based on policy needs of people at childbearing age.

Keywords: Childcare Policies, Hierarchy of Needs, Structural Needs, Kano Model, Latent Class Model

杨雪燕, 高琛, 卓井文. 低生育率时代儿童照顾政策的需求层次与结构[J]. 人口研究, 2021, 45(1): 19-35.

Yang Xueyan, Gao Chenzhuo, Jing Wen. Hierarchy and Structure of Policy Needs for Childcare in the Era of Low-Fertility:An Empirical Analysis Based on Survey Data from Xi'an City[J]. Population Research, 2021, 45(1): 19-35.