关键词: 总和生育率, 后生育转变阶段, 低生育水平, 性别平等困境, 婚育文化冲突困境

Abstract: While post-transitional societies have below replacement fertility, differentials exist with the lowest hovering around 1.0 and the highest remaining around replacement level. At present, the total fertility rate of 70% post-transitional countries (regions) is 1.5 and above, and only 8 countries (regions) have total fertility below 1.3. The differences of current social and economic development cannot fully explain the differences of post-transitional fertility level, and the answer need to be found from the historical process of social transition. Under the guidance of Ogben’s culture lag theory, this study proposes two concepts. One is the “Gender Equality Dilemma” and the other is the “Marriage and Fertility Cultural Conflict Dilemma”. These two concepts can basically explain the differences of post-transitional fertility level. China has now already been faced with these two “Dilemma”. In order to cope with the risk of low fertility, it is urgent to incorporate the concept of gender equality into the design of various public policies and realize the inclusiveness of fertility policies in an all-round and multi-level way.

Keywords: Total Fertility Rate, Post-transitional Fertility, Low Fertility, Gender Equality Dilemma, Marriage and Fertility Cultural Conflict Dilemma