关键词: 男性婚姻挤压, 大龄未婚男性, 初婚概率, 成婚期望年数, 第七次全国人口普查

Abstract: Using data from China's 7th Census and previous census data since 1990, this paper analyzes the trends and characteristics of marriage squeeze among men in recent decades. Results show that the marriage squeezes among men and its consequences have significantly manifested. The sex ratio of marriageable population has sharply increased from 2010 to 2020, and it is projected to peak at 116.13 by 2036. Unlike in the past, when the phenomenon was primarily concentrated in socio-economically underdeveloped regions, the surplus of never married men in economically developed areas with high urbanization rates becomes apparent. The marriage squeeze among men leads to substantial gender disparities in first marriage probabilities, with significantly lower probabilities of first marriage for men compared to women and a substantial increase in the expected number of years for never married men to get married. The scale of rural involuntary bachelors remains elevated, with urban areas experiencing a growing population of involuntary bachelors. The urban never married men aged 45 and above increased from 1.76 million to 3.88 million from 2010 to 2020. Involuntary bachelors have relatively limited economic resources, increased reliance on minimum subsistence allowance, and a rising proportion of unhealthy and solitary life in old age.    

Keywords: Male Marriage Squeeze, Involuntary Bachelors, The Probability of First Marriage, The Number of Years of Single Life Remaining, The 7th Population Census