关键词: 人口转变, 人口出生高峰, 人口死亡高峰, 数理人口学

Abstract: With the accelerating ageing process of the population, China is facing an unprecedented mortality peak dominated by the older population. Mathematical demography analysis reveals that the evolution of the mortality peak depends on three intertwined demographic factors: (1) historical fertility peaks and troughs play a dominant role in shaping the mortality population, (2) increased survival rates expand the elderly population base, thereby increasing the number of elderly deaths, and (3) period mortality rate declines contribute to reducing the mortality peak. As these three factors have varying effects on different birth cohorts, ages, and periods, age-specific deaths exhibit significant fluctuations. However, when summing up deaths across all ages, the fluctuations at different ages offset each other to some extent, resulting in a relatively smooth trend in the total number of deaths. Although the massive number of deaths among the elderly are a natural outcome of the demographic transition, China’s mortality peak is approaching rapidly and on an unprecedented scale, posing severe challenges to individuals, families, and society as a whole. The government and all sectors of society need to formulate proactive coping strategies as early as possible

Keywords: Demographic Transition, Baby Boom, Mortality Peak, Mathematical Demography