关键词: 托育机构, 可负担政策目标, 可负担能力, 生育意愿, 中国台湾地区

Abstract: The long-term low fertility intentions in Taiwan,China have led to a widespread and urgent demand for affordable childcare services. However, studies have rarely discussed the measurement of service affordability and its impact on fertility intentions. Based on the data from “Women's Marriage, Fertility and Employment Survey” (WMFES) in Taiwan,China conducted in 2016, this study constructs an affordability index of childcare institutions to analyze the impacts of the achievement of childcare affordability policy goals at the household level and the individual-level childcare affordability on women's fertility intentions. The results show that only 15.36% of women at childbearing age in Taiwan,China intended to have a/another child. The proportion of families that achieve childcare affordability policy goals is about 20%. If this goal is set at 15%, the goal achievement has a significant positive impact on women's intention to continue to have children. For every 1 unit increase in women's own and their spouse's affordability for childcare institutions, the probabilities of continuing to have children increase by 51.02% and 15.23%, respectively. The empirical results and practical experience in Taiwan,China provide valuable insights for the provinces in Mainland China in establishing the pricing system and implementing pricing supervision and management for childcare services.

Keywords: Childcare Institutions, Policy Goals for Childcare Affordability, Individual Affordability, Fertility Intentions, Taiwan, China