生育支持政策对育龄群体生育意愿的影响——基于2021年成都市专项调查的实证分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要：在少子化背景下，为深入探究生育支持政策对生育意愿的影响及其具体作用机制，以生育行为为分界，将生育支持政策细分为孕育支持政策和养育支持政策，并基于2021年成都市“人口生育政策配套措施效果评价”专项调查数据开展实证分析。研究发现，孕育支持政策与生育意愿之间存在显著的正向关系，养育支持政策与生育意愿之间的关系则未得到实证支持；进一步探究生育成本观和生育偏好观在孕育支持政策对生育意愿影响中的差异化作用机制，可将育龄群体分为“敢生不愿生”型、“不敢生不愿生”型、“敢生愿生”型和“愿生不敢生”型4类，适用于不同类型育龄群体的政策指向不同。因此，构建长效的生育支持政策体系需要科学识别目标群体，精准施策，以提高政策效能，有效提升生育水平。

关键词: 生育支持政策, 生育意愿, 生育成本观, 生育偏好观, 政策工具

Abstract: To explore the impact of fertility support policy on fertility desire and its mechanisms, this study divides fertility support policy into pregnancy support policy and parenting support policy based on fertility behavior, and conductes empirical analysis using the special survey data of “Effectiveness evaluation of fertility policy and supporting measures” in Chengdu in 2021. The results show that there is a significant positive relationship between pregnancy support policy and fertility desire, while the relationship between parenting support policy and fertility intention is not supported by empirical evidence. In further exploring of the differential mechanisms of fertility cost perceptions and fertility preferences in the impact of pregnancy support policies on fertility desire, the childbearing age groups can be classified into four categories: “daring but not willing to give birth”, “not willing and not daring to give birth”, “daring and willing to give birth” and “willing but not daring to give birth”. Different policy directions are applicable to different types of childbearing age groups under different mechanisms. Therefore, constructing a long-term fertility support policy system requires the scientific identification of target groups and precise policies to improve policy effectiveness and to effectively enhance fertility levels.

Keywords: Fertility Support Policy, Fertility Desire, Fertility Cost Perceptions, Fertility Preferences, Policy Tools

王卓, 李梦鹤. 生育支持政策对育龄群体生育意愿的影响——基于2021年成都市专项调查的实证分析[J]. 人口研究, 2024, 48(4): 3-18.

Wang Zhuo, Li Menghe. The Impact of Fertility Support Policy on Fertility Desire of the Reproductive-Age Population: An Empirical Analysis Based on 2021 Chengdu Specialized Survey[J]. Population Research, 2024, 48(4): 3-18.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/

https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2024/V48/I4/3

参考文献

1 陈卫,靳永爱.中国妇女生育意愿与生育行为的差异及其影响因素.人口学刊,2011;2:3-13
Chen Wei and Jin Yongai. 2011. Gaps between Fertility Intensions and Fertility Outcomes in China: Patterns and Determinants. Population Journal 2:3-13.
2 崔应令.生育支持的制度、观念与文化建设:人口均衡发展的路径探索.理论月刊,2023;8:110-119
Cui Yingling. 2023. The System, Idea and Cultural Construction of Fertility Support: Exploring the Path of Balanced Population Development. Theory Monthly 8:110-119.
3 邓大才.农民生育偏好与行为:社会解构模型——对当今部分农民生育偏好及行为逆变的一个解释.社会科学研究,2008;5:102-108
Deng Dacai. 2008. A Social Deconstruction Model of Birth Preference and Behavior of Farmers: An Explanation of the Reversal of Birth Preference and Behavior of Some Farmers Today. Social Science Research 5:102-108.
4 黄乾,范子昂.生育支持政策提升了女性生育意愿吗?——基于企业-员工匹配数据的实证研究.中国人口科学,2023;5:18-34
Huang Qian and Fan Ziang. 2023. Have China's Fertility Support Policies Boosted Women's Fertility Intention? Empirical Findings Based on the Enterprise-Employee Matching Data. Chinese Journal of Population Science 5:18-34.
5 贾志科,罗志华,张欣杰.我国家庭养育成本的研究述评与前景展望.西北人口,2021;5:115-126
Jia Zhike, Luo Zhihua, and Zhang Xinjie. 2021. A Review and Prospect of the Research on the Cost of Family Raising Children in China. Northwest Population Journal 5:115-126.
6 李志,吴永江.育龄青年的生育价值观影响生育计划的调查研究——基于生育支持的中介作用分析.中国特色社会主义研究,2022;Z1:84-96
Li Zhi and Wu Yongjiang. 2022. Investigation of and Study on Impact of Fertility Value of Youth of Childbearing Age on Their Planning for Pregnancy: Based on the Analysis on Mediating Role of Fertility Support. Studies on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics Z1:84-96.
7 满小欧,杨扬.“三孩”背景下我国生育支持政策体系建设研究——基于政策工具与生育友好的双重分析框架.东北大学学报(社会科学版),2023;1:88-95
Man Xiaoou and Yang Yang. 2023. Research on the Construction of China's Birth-support Policy System under the Background of “Three Children Policy”: A Dual Analytical Framework Based on Policy Tools and Fertility Friendliness. Journal of Northeastern University (Social Science) 1:88-95.
8 茅倬彦,罗昊.符合二胎政策妇女的生育意愿和生育行为差异——基于计划行为理论的实证研究.人口研究,2013;1:84-93
Mao Zhuoyan and Luo Hao. 2013. Difference between Fertility Intention and Fertility Behavior for Women Subject to the Two-children Policy: An Empirical Study Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. Population Research 1:84-93.
9 穆光宗.生育的成本-效用分析.南方人口,1993;4:7-12
Mu Guangzong. 1993. The Cost-Utility Analysis of Childbearing. South China Population 4:7-12.
10 祁静,茅倬彦.生命历程视角下的生育支持政策研究.福建师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2020;2:112-121
Qi Jing and Mao Zhuoyan. 2020. Research on Birth Support Policy from the Perspective of Life Course. Journal of Fujian Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition) 2:112-121.
11 史毅,韩润霖.生育支持政策体系构建:内涵、价值与路径.北京行政学院学报,2023;6:116-126
Shi Yi and Han Runlin. 2023. The Construction of a Fertility-Support Policy System: Connotation, Value and Path. Journal of Beijing Administration Institute 6:116-126.
12 田宏杰,孙宏艳,赵霞,张旭东.三孩政策下的低生育意愿:现实束缚与文化观念制约.青年探索,2022;4:77-86
Tian Hongjie, Sun Hongyan, Zhao Xia, and Zhang Xudong. 2022. Low Fertility Desire under the Three-child Policy: Realistic Constraints and Cultural Constraints. Youth Exploration 4:77-86.
13 王肖婧.劳动力市场的性别收入不平等及女性贫困——一个人力资本和社会资本理论的双重视角.财经问题研究,2018;3:123-129
Wang Xiaojing. 2018. Gender Income Inequality and Female Poverty in Labor Market: A Dual Perspective of Human Capital and Social Capital Theory. Research on Financial and Economic Issues 3:123-129.
14 王玥,毛佳欣,李楠楠.女性就业视角下OECD国家生育支持政策效果研究——基于模糊集定性比较分析.人口学刊,2023;6:81-96
Wang Yue, Mao Jiaxin, and Li Nannan. 2023. Study on the Effect of OECD National Fertility Support Policy from the Perspective of Female Employment: Based on FsQCA. Population Journal 6:81-96.
15 温忠麟,张雷,侯杰泰,刘红云.中介效应检验程序及其应用.心理学报,2004;5:614-620
Wen Zhonglin, Zhang Lei, Hou Jietai, and Liu Hongyun. 2004. Testing and Application of the Mediating Effects. Acta Psychologica Sinica 5:614-620.
16 温忠麟,侯杰泰,张雷.调节效应与中介效应的比较和应用.心理学报,2005;2:268-274
Wen Zhonglin, Hou Jietai, and Zhang Lei. 2005. A Comparison of Moderator and Mediator and Their Applications. Acta Psychologica Sinica 2:268-274.
17 杨宝琰,吴霜.从“生育成本约束”到“幸福价值导向”——城市“70后”“80后”和“90后”的生育观变迁.西北人口,2021;6:36-46
Yang Baoyan and Wu Shuang. 2021. From “Fertility Cost Constraint” to “Happiness Value Orientation”: The Changes of the Fertility Concept of the Urban “Post-70s”, “Post-80s”, and “Post-90s”. Northwest Population Journal 6:36-46.
18 杨菊华.生育支持与生育支持政策:基本意涵与未来取向.山东社会科学,2019;10:98-107
Yang Juhua. 2019. Childbirth Support and Childbirth Support Policy: Basic Implication and Future Approach. Shandong Social Sciences 10:98-107.
19 翟振武,李姝婧.把握生育新态势建立整体性生育支持政策体系.人口研究,2022;6:10-16
Zhai Zhenwu and Li Shujing. 2022. Towards an Integrated System of Fertility Supporting Policies. Population Research 6:10-16.
20 Barro R. J. and Becker G. S. 1989. Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth. Econometrica 2:481-501.
21 Bernhard N. 2014. Value of Children and Fertility: Results from a Cross-cultural Comparative Survey in Eighteen Areas in Asia, Africa, Europe and America. Advances in Life Course Research S1:135-148.
22 Lesthaeghe R. 2014. The Second Demographic Transition: A Concise Overview of Its Development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 51:18112-18115.

[1]	张蕾, 庄晓旭, 傅上豪. 中国台湾地区0~2岁托育机构服务可负担性及其对育龄女性生育意愿的影响[J]. 人口研究, 2024, 48(4): 19-32.
[2]	都阳, 程杰, 曲玥. 生育支持政策的中央事权与顶层设计[J]. 人口研究, 2024, 48(2): 3-16.
[3]	陈卫民, 王佑茹. 生育动机在互联网使用对生育意愿影响中的中介作用分析[J]. 人口研究, 2024, 48(2): 44-59.
[4]	朱莉, 黄柏林, 刘呈军, 彭刚. 主观福利对生育意愿的影响——基于CGSS数据的实证研究[J]. 人口研究, 2024, 48(1): 118-132.
[5]	宋健, 胡波, 姜春云, 陈文琪. 中国的低生育率及省际差异：基于生育指数的观察[J]. 人口研究, 2023, 47(5): 74-87.
[6]	张洋, 李灵春. 生育支持政策何以有效：性别平等视角下的27国生育支持政策组合与生育率反弹[J]. 人口研究, 2023, 47(4): 3-19.
[7]	石智雷, 邵玺. 三孩政策下新冠肺炎疫情对居民生育意愿的影响[J]. 人口研究, 2023, 47(2): 78-95.
[8]	丁守海, 夏璋煦, 欧阳语心. 数字经济下平台就业能改善个体生育意愿吗？[J]. 人口研究, 2023, 47(1): 101-114.
[9]	宋健, 陈文琪. 育龄夫妇生育意愿的满足情况及家庭特征的影响[J]. 人口研究, 2022, 46(5): 3-18.
[10]	邱磊菊, 冯宜强, 史宇鹏, 孙宝文. 互联网使用会影响居民生育意愿吗？[J]. 人口研究, 2022, 46(3): 3-15.
[11]	陈卫民, 万佳乐, 李超伟. 上网为什么会影响个人生育意愿？[J]. 人口研究, 2022, 46(3): 16-29.
[12]	李婉鑫, 杨小军, 杨雪燕. 儿童照料支持与二孩生育意愿[J]. 人口研究, 2021, 45(5): 64-78.
[13]	宋健, 阿里米热·阿里木. 育龄女性生育意愿与行为的偏离及家庭生育支持的作用[J]. 人口研究, 2021, 45(4): 18-35.
[14]	庄亚儿, 姜玉, 李伯华. 全面两孩政策背景下中国妇女生育意愿及其影响因素[J]. 人口研究, 2021, 45(1): 68-81.
[15]	丁金宏，程晨，吴航，张伟佳. 生育行为的社会动力演化及生育政策响应[J]. 人口研究, 2019, 43(5): 17-27.