户籍制度改革对流动人口生育决策的影响: 基于公共服务视角的分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要：基于2014年户籍制度改革这一准自然实验，利用2019年全国人口与家庭动态监测调查数据，采用双重差分模型，考察户籍制度改革对流动女性生育意愿和生育行为的影响及其机制。研究发现，户籍制度改革显著提升了流动女性的生育意愿和生育行为，且这一效应在改革后结婚和低受教育水平的群体中更为显著。进一步分析表明，户籍制度改革通过3个渠道影响流动人口生育决策：其一，改善生育权益保障，提供免费孕前检查和新生儿健康管理等服务，降低生育经济负担：其二，增强生育就业保护，完善产假制度及待遇，减轻女性职业发展顾虑：其三，转变生育观念，提升育龄人群对生育价值的认可。聚焦中国户籍制度变迁背景分析流动人口生育决策，拓展了生育支持对生育决策影响的研究视角，为完善户籍制度改革、促进流动人口发展提供了重要的政策启示。

关键词: 户籍制度改革, 流动人口, 生育决策, 生育支持

Abstract: Utilizing the 2014 Hukou reform as a quasi-natural experiment and applying the difference-in-differences design to the 2019 National Population and Family Dynamic Monitoring Survey data, this study examines the impact of Hukou reform on fertility intentions and behaviors of migrant women and their mechanisms in China. The results show that the reform significantly increased fertility intentions and behaviors, particularly among those who got married after the reform and those with low educational levels. Further analysis reveals three mechanisms: improved fertility rights and benefits through free prenatal and newborn health services, enhanced employment protection via maternity leave policies, and transformed attitudes towards reproduction. This study expands the research perspective on how fertility support influences fertility decisions, offering important policy implications for Hukou reform and migrant population development.

Keywords: Hukou Reform, Migrant Population, Fertility Decisions, Fertility Support

宋月萍, 王志理, 武翰涛. 户籍制度改革对流动人口生育决策的影响: 基于公共服务视角的分析[J]. 人口研究, 2025, 49(1): 101-116.

Song Yueping, Wang Zhili, Wu Hantao. Impact of Hukou System Reform on Fertility Decisions of Migrants: A Public Service Perspective[J]. Population Research, 2025, 49(1): 101-116.

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https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V49/I1/101

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