人口老龄化、养老产业发展与经济增长的关系探究

摘要/Abstract

摘要：在中国式现代化与快速的人口老龄化相重合的背景下，中国面临着经济发展途径和推进方式的科学选择。基于2013~2022年省级面板数据，分析人口老龄化与养老产业发展对经济增长的影响机制。研究发现，人口老龄化程度加深会抑制经济增长，养老产业发展则有利于经济增长。机制分析表明，养老产业发展在人口老龄化与经济增长的关系中起到重要调节作用，其会显著削弱人口老龄化对经济增长的负向影响。异质性分析发现，人口老龄化、养老产业发展与经济增长之间的关系在不同区域存在显著差异，人口老龄化与养老产业发展的联动效应仅在西部地区对经济增长起到显著的调节作用。应推动养老产业创新发展，强化区域协同发展，全面优化社会保障体系，实施精细化政策管理，实现人口老龄化、养老产业与经济增长协同发展。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 养老产业, 经济增长, 调节效应

Abstract: Chinese modernization coincides with the acceleration of population ageing, and therefore faces a scientific choice regarding economic development paths and promotion methods. In the context of an ageing population, the elderly care industry will continue to develop, thereby promoting economic growth. Based on China's provincial panel data spanning from 2013 to 2022, this paper analyzes the impact and mechanism of population ageing and the development of the elderly care industry on economic growth. The results show that the deepening of population ageing inhibits economic growth, whereas the development of the elderly care industry promotes economic growth. Mechanism analysis indicates that the development of the elderly care industry plays a crucial regulatory role in the relationship between population ageing and economic growth, which will significantly weaken the negative impact of population ageing on economic growth. Heterogeneity analysis shows that there are significant differences in the relationships among population ageing, development of the elderly care industry, and economic growth in different regions, and the linkage effect between population ageing and the development of the elderly care industry only plays a significant role in regulating economic growth in the western region. It is imperative to promote innovation and development within the elderly care industry, strengthen regional coordinated development, optimize the social security system, implement refined policy management, and achieve coordinated development among population ageing, the elderly care industry, and economic growth.

Keywords: Population Ageing, Elderly Care Industry, Economic Growth, Moderating Effect

穆怀中, 张献政. 人口老龄化、养老产业发展与经济增长的关系探究[J]. 人口研究, 2025, 49(1): 85-100.

Mu Huaizhong, Zhang Xianzheng. Exploring the Relationship among Population Ageing, Elderly Care Industry Development, and Economic Growth[J]. Population Research, 2025, 49(1): 85-100.

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链接本文: https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/

https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V49/I1/85

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