生育计划与理想的偏离：基于生育约束视角的分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要：基于生育意愿概念的不同层次以及其在中国各种大型调查中的演变，采用中国不婚不育少育群体专项调查数据，详细刻画未婚、已婚未育和少育3类特定育龄群体生育计划与生育理想的偏离情况，进一步结合不同群体所面临的生育约束，探索造成生育计划与理想偏离的客观原因。研究发现，3类群体存在着不同程度的生育计划与理想的偏离，反映了育龄人群生育理想向生育计划的转化面临着客观阻力。其中，职业发展和住房状况对生育的影响显著制约了已婚未育群体生育计划的形成，从而导致其产生更大的生育计划偏离;少育群体的生育阻力主要体现在家庭收入较低的群体所面临的经济约束上。鉴于此，生育支持政策体系的完善应聚焦于全方位消除生育约束，并提供更具针对性的生育激励措施。

关键词: 生育意愿, 生育偏离, 生育约束, 生育支持政策

Abstract: Previous large-scale surveys in China have conceptualized and measured fertility intentions differently. This study utilizes data from the 2023 specialized survey on never-married groups, childless, and single-child couples in China to systematically depict the gap between two measures of fertility intentions-fertility plans and fertility ideals-among these three specific groups. By incorporating fertility constraints faced by different groups, the study further explores the objective factors contributing to the gap. The findings reveal that all three groups exhibit a gap between their fertility plans and fertility ideals, suggesting that there are barriers faced by individuals at childbearing age in developing their fertility plans. Career development and housing conditions significantly constrain the fertility plans of the childless group, leading to their larger gaps in fertility plans. The fertility constraints among the group with only one child are mainly reflected in the economic constraints faced by individuals with lower household income. This study expands the understanding of fertility intentions among China's childbearing-age population, emphasizing that the fertility support policy system should focus on removing fertility constraints and providing more targeted incentives.

Keywords: Fertility Intentions, Fertility Gap, Fertility Constraints, Fertility Support Policies

刘甲楠, 黄卓. 生育计划与理想的偏离：基于生育约束视角的分析[J]. 人口研究, 2025, 49(4): 51-65.

Liu Jia'nan, Huang Zhuo. The Gap between Fertility Plans and Fertility Ideals: An Analysis from the Perspective of Fertility Constraints[J]. Population Research, 2025, 49(4): 51-65.

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https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V49/I4/51

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