关键词: 人口红利, 老龄化, 人口增长滞后效应

Abstract: By saying that "India will surpass China in demographic dividend," the Western thought has turned population problems of developing countries to "demographic dividend." This paper briefly reviews some Western studies that leads to the Western thought on the relationship between population and economy.It concludes that similar studies by Chinese scholars,which reach a conclusion that demographic dividend contributed 27% China’s economic growth,have serious flaws.While "getting old before getting rich" may be one of the characteristics of population aging in China,many unique factors make the aging effects in China much weaker than that in the West.Aging in the West has been so far accompanied by increasing unemployment problem,and whether transitional China with 200 million surplus labors will face similar problem should have caught more attention.Currently,the lagged effects of population growth of China have entered its fully demonstrated period.If China’s population policy changes to encourage population growth,it will be a big mistake.

Keywords: Demographic Dividend, Aging, Lagged Effects of Population Growth