关键词: 劳动力供给, 劳动力需求, 人口预测, 经济预测

Abstract: This paper forecasts labor supply and labor demand from 2010 to 2050 in China by adopting various population and economy forecasting methods. Results show that relationship between labor supply and labor demand will reverse after the year 2016. Even if total fertility rate increases to replacement level in the year 2020 and assumes unchanging trend in the future, China will still face long-term labor shortages, since the huge inertia of low birth rate has an irreversible effects to China labor market in the long run. By comparing labor supply and labor demand under different fertility scenarios, this paper proposes comprehensive policy suggestions related to short-term employment enhancement and long-term promotion of healthy and sustainable development of population and economy.

Keywords: Labor Supply, Labor Demand, Population Forecast, Economic Forecast