关键词: 人口迁移, 人口流动, 变系数面板模型

Abstract: Based on the preliminary investigation of spatial and temporal patterns of migration with and without hukou(i.e.,the household registration system)change and drawing on panel data in the past ten years,this paper uses random coefficient models to examine the impacts of migration on provincial economy growth in China.Analytical results show that:(a) migrations with hukou change across regions have been relatively stable,while migration without hukou change has increased rapidly and continuously since 2000 with extreme disparities across provinces;(b) the migration and mobility of the population is a Pareto improvement for China’s overall economy;(c) hukou in developed areas plays a role as the hourglass;(d) for most central provinces and some western provinces with large-size of out-migration,the negative impact of the loss of human capital due to large-scale out-migration on local economy began to come out;although out-migration has in general a positive impact,its contribution to local economic development is not as obvious as we expected.

Keywords: Migration with Hukou Change, Migration without Hukou Change(or Temporary Migration), Panel Data, Random Coefficient Model