人口研究 ›› 2009, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 1-9.

• 论文 •    下一篇

中国的生育革命

李建民   

  1. 南开大学经济学院人口与发展研究所,天津 300071
  • 出版日期:2009-01-29 发布日期:2012-11-25
  • 作者简介:南开大学经济学院人口与发展研究所教授, 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心兼职教授
  • 基金资助:

    教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“20世纪90年代中国生育率水平分析”(项目编号:01JAZJD8400004)资助

Fertility Revolution in China

Li Jianmin   

  1. Institute of Population and Development Research, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071
  • Online:2009-01-29 Published:2012-11-25
  • About author:Profrssor,Institute of Population and Development Research, Nankai University

摘要: 文章从生育革命的动力机制角度提出了一个关于生育革命动力结构的理论模型,并根据主导动力机制的不同类型把生育革命划为三个阶段:死亡率转变驱动阶段、生育意愿转变驱动阶段、生育成本约束驱动阶段。20世纪70年代以来发生在中国的生育革命虽然有政府计划生育政策的强力推进,但是社会经济发展仍是这场革命的深层动因。特别是1992年以来的生育率下降更是体现了生育革命的本质。文章认为,中国的生育率转变已经完成,开始进入以成本约束驱动为主导的低生育率阶段。

关键词: 生育革命, 生育率转变, 计划生育

Abstract: This article firstly brings forward a theoretical model on the dynamic structure of fertility revolution, and then divides the fertility revolution into three phases in accordance with its patterns of dynamic mechanisms: the phase driven by mortality change, the phase driven by fertility preference change and the phase driven by fertility cost control. Social and economic development is the fundamental driving force for China’s fertility revolution since 1970s, even though pushed forward greatly by the government’s family planning policy. Especially since 1992, fertility decline in China has shown up the nature of fertility revolution. Finally, this article concludes that China’s fertility transition has ended and entered a phase of low fertility driven by fertility cost control.

Keywords: Fertility revolution, Fertility transition, Family planning