人口研究 ›› 2013, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 82-92.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国人口年龄结构与居民消费关系的比较分析

毛中根1孙武福2洪涛3   

  1. 1 西南财经大学消费经济研究,四川成都:610074;2 西南财经大学消费经济研究所,四川成都:610074;3 哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院,四川成都:610074
  • 出版日期:2013-05-28 发布日期:2013-09-09
  • 通讯作者: 1 maonju@163.com
  • 作者简介:1 西南财经大学消费经济研究所教授;2 西南财经大学消费经济研究所硕士;3 哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院副教授
  • 基金资助:
    霍英东教育基金会项目(131085);国家自然科学基金(71103051);国家社科基金项目(08CJL007);教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”项目(NCET-12-0927)

Comparative Analysis on the elationship between Population Age Structure and Household Consumption in China

Mao Zhonggen1, Sun Wufu2, Hong Tao3   

  1. 1 Institute of Consumption Economics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics; 2 Institute of Consumption Economics, South-western University of Finance and Economics; 3  Harbin Institute of Technology
  • Online:2013-05-28 Published:2013-09-09
  • Contact: 1 maonju@163.com
  • About author:1 Professor,Institute of Consumption Economics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics; 2 Master Student,Institute of Consumption Economics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics; 3 Associate Professor,Harbin Institute of Technology

摘要: 老龄化对老龄人口自身消费将产生影响;老龄化通过影响储蓄率、劳动供给、劳动生产率、经济增长将间接作用于消费需求。实证分析表明:收入对居民消费支出的影响显著,收入越低的地方边际消费倾向越大;老年抚养比的提高是导致居民消费降低的一个重要原因。城乡比较显示:人口老龄化的提高显著降低了城市居民的消费支出,而对农村居民的影响不显著;少儿抚养比的提高显著增加了城乡居民的消费支出;老年负担率的提高显著降低了城镇居民的消费支出,而对农村居民的影响比较微弱。东中西部地区比较表明:人口老龄化对居民消费的影响由大到小依次是东部、中部、西部;少儿抚养比对居民消费的影响由大到小为中部、西部、东部;老年负担率对居民消费的影响由大到小为东部、中部、西部。

关键词: 人口年龄结构, 少儿抚养比, 老年抚养比, 居民消费

Abstract: The aging of population has impacts on the consumption of the aged population By affecting the savings rate,labor supply,labor productivity,economic growth,aging will be indirectly influencing consumer demand The empirical analysis shows that the effect of income on household consumption is significant,that is the lower the income,the greater the propensity of marginal consumption; the increase of the elderly dependency ratio is an important factor in reducing household consumption A comparison of urban and rural areas shows that population aging significantly reduces consumption expenditure of urban residents while the effect for rural residents is not significant; rising child dependency ratio significantly increases consumption expenditure of both urban and rural residents A comparison of eastern,central and western areas suggests that the descending order of the effect of population aging on household consumption is east,central and west areas; the descending order of the effect of child dependency ratio on household consumption is central,west and east areas; while the descending order of the effect of elderly dependency ratio on household consumption is east,central and west areas in China.

Keywords: Population Age Structure, Child Dependency atio, Elderly Dependency ate, Household Consumption