关键词: 总和生育率, 漏报率, 出生率, 人口普查

Abstract: Using data from China’s population censuses and sampling surveys, this paper provides a reassessment of China’s fertility since 2005 under the assumption that the 2010 census has  similarly high data quality as the 1990 census. Cohort analysis suggests that population aged 0-5 in the 1990 census is underreported by 7.7%, and population aged 0-5 in the 2010 census is thus adjusted with this rate, which are further translated into annual births and fertility rate over 2005-2010. This paper also provides an estimation of fertility over 2005-2013 using the relationship between total fertility rate and crude birth rate which are based on data from censuses and sampling surveys plus the crude birth rates published by the National Bureau of Statistics. While differences exist in the results from the two type of estimation, they are largely consistent. China’s recent fertility stands at a level that is unlikely below 1.5, and most probably around 1.6. The paper concludes with a discussion of the assumption used in this research and some plausible limitations of the research.

Keywords: Total Fertility Rate, Under-reporting Rate, Crude Birth Rate, Population Census