关键词: 生育政策, 人口预测, 年龄孩次递进生育率模型, 人口规模, 人口年龄结构

Abstract: China’s universal two-child policy will definitely impact the future development of population．This paper identifies the target women of the universal two-child policy by family type，fertility history and fertility intention，according to which we calculate the number of extra births and related fertility rates and patterns．Scenarios of population forecast are developed using the model of the parity progressive population dynamics．Results show that the universal two-child policy would produce additional 21 million population during the 13th Five-Year Plan period．The population peak would be postponed to 2030 standing at 1.47 billion，slightly larger than the scenario without adjusting policies．Meanwhile，decline in population and labor force would slow down，and labor supply would increase while the pace of population ageing decrease after 2035．However，the long-term declining trend of the total population would not change．China’s population would continue to shrink at an average rate of 6.4 million per year after 2030，and will be reduced to 1.02 billion by the end of the century．

Keywords: Fertility Policy, Population Forecast, Model of Parity Progression Population Dynamics, Population Size, Age Structure